Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bears @ Grizzlies UNCO @ MONT

NORTHERN COLORADO

BEARSUNCO

10-4  |  Road

79
FINAL
Sat, Jan 3 • 6:00 PM ET
Dahlberg Arena
View Odds Details →

MONTANA

GRIZZLIESMONT

7-7  |  Home

88
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
100%
📊
GRIZZLIES
0%
BEARS --
GRIZZLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
130.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-32.0
MONTANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +32.0 points (Montana)
BearsUNCO (-3.5) 0 GrizzliesMONT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

0.1%

Grizzlies Cover

99.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MONT -32.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MONT)

UNCO By 1-7 points

0.1%

UNCO By 8-14 points

0.0%

MONT By 1-7 points

0.6%

MONT By 8-14 points

3.3%

AI Model Projected Score
49
NORTHERN COLORADO
81
MONTANA
Simulated Score
71
NORTHERN COLORADO
74
MONTANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Grizzlies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Grizzlies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Grizzlies (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -32.0
D
Sim Grizzlies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u160.5 Loss
Proj Total: 130.0
D
Sim u160.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 9, 2026 UNCO @ MONT 89 - 95
Mar 2, 2026 MONT @ UNCO 57 - 85
Jan 3, 2026 UNCO @ MONT 79 - 88
Mar 12, 2025 MONT @ UNCO 91 - 83
Feb 6, 2025 MONT @ UNCO 86 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +270.0% more
Montana: 3.6 vs Northern Colorado: 0.9
Steals (L5) +146.2% more
Montana: 6.5 vs Northern Colorado: 2.6
Turnovers (L5) +26.5% more
Montana: 14.9 vs Northern Colorado: 11.8
Assists (L5) +15.1% more
Montana: 16.4 vs Northern Colorado: 14.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNCO Score 49.0 79
MONT Score 81.0 88
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.0 / 38.9 29.0 / 31.0
Assists 16.4 / 14.3 15.0 / 19.0
Blocks 3.6 / 0.9 4.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 50.0 / 48.9 44.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 75.4 / 73.3 92.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 32.3 / 36.5 37.0 / 40.0
Steals 6.5 / 2.6 5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 14.9 / 11.8 11.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNCO Advantage
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.5
MONT
18-16-0 (52.9%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNCO Advantage
15-13-1 (53.6%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.5
MONT
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UNCO
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +2.7
MONT
14-15-1
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MONT
UNCO
MONT
UNCO
ML
39% 13-20
50% 16-16
73% 24-9
66% 21-11
ATS
55% 18-15
53% 17-15
73% 24-9
66% 21-11
TTL
59% 19-13-1
50% 16-16
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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