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BOISE STATE

BRONCOSBOIS

9-4  |  Road

107
FINAL
Sat, Jan 3 • 10:00 PM ET
Viejas Arena
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO STATE

AZTECSSDSU

8-4  |  Home

110
AI Model Win Probability
BRONCOS
100%
📊
AZTECS
0%
BRONCOS --
AZTECS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
125.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
SAN DIEGO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (San Diego State)
BroncosBOIS (-3.5) 0 AztecsSDSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Broncos Cover

24.2%

Aztecs Cover

75.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SDSU -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SDSU)

BOIS By 1-7 points

15.3%

BOIS By 8-14 points

5.8%

SDSU By 1-7 points

26.2%

SDSU By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
59
BOISE STATE
66
SAN DIEGO STATE
Simulated Score
68
BOISE STATE
72
SAN DIEGO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Aztecs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Aztecs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Aztecs (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Aztecs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u138.5 Loss
Proj Total: 125.0
D
Sim u138.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 3, 2026 SDSU @ BOIS 77 - 86
Jan 3, 2026 BOIS @ SDSU 107 - 110
Mar 13, 2025 BOIS @ SDSU 62 - 52
Feb 15, 2025 BOIS @ SDSU 47 - 64
Jan 4, 2025 SDSU @ BOIS 76 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +52.4% more
San Diego State: 16.8 vs Boise State: 11.0
Blocks (L5) +40.7% more
San Diego State: 4.3 vs Boise State: 3.1
Steals (L5) +31.9% more
San Diego State: 6.9 vs Boise State: 5.2
Turnovers (L5) +11.1% more
San Diego State: 12.4 vs Boise State: 11.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOIS Score 59.0 107
SDSU Score 66.0 110
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.8 / 30.4 46.0 / 33.0
Assists 16.8 / 11.0 21.0 / 18.0
Blocks 4.3 / 3.1 4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 49.3 / 42.3 53.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 73.9 / 71.5 66.0 / 87.0
Rebounding 39.7 / 39.4 38.0 / 45.0
Steals 6.9 / 5.2 10.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.4 / 11.2 14.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOIS
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.2
SDSU Advantage
22-11-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOIS Advantage
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.2
SDSU
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
BOIS
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: +3.8
SDSU
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SDSU
BOIS
SDSU
BOIS
ML
62% 20-12
50% 16-16
72% 23-9
61% 19-12
ATS
69% 22-10
50% 16-16
72% 23-9
61% 19-12
TTL
75% 24-8
56% 18-14
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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