Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Rebels @ Sooners MISS @ OU

OLE MISS

REBELSMISS

8-5  |  Road

70
FINAL
Sat, Jan 3 • 3:30 PM ET
Lloyd Noble Center
View Odds Details →

OKLAHOMA

SOONERSOU

10-3  |  Home

86
AI Model Win Probability
REBELS
100%
📊
SOONERS
0%
REBELS --
SOONERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
169.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
OKLAHOMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Oklahoma)
RebelsMISS (-3.5) 0 SoonersOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rebels Cover

24.2%

Sooners Cover

75.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OU -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OU)

MISS By 1-7 points

15.3%

MISS By 8-14 points

5.8%

OU By 1-7 points

26.2%

OU By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
81
OLE MISS
88
OKLAHOMA
Simulated Score
72
OLE MISS
77
OKLAHOMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Sooners Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Sooners Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Sooners (-6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Sooners (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o146.5 Win
Proj Total: 169.0
D
Sim u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 3, 2026 MISS @ OU 70 - 86
Mar 1, 2025 OU @ MISS 84 - 87
Nov 27, 2022 MISS @ OU 55 - 59
Mar 22, 2019 OU @ MISS 95 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +32.1% more
Oklahoma: 19.0 vs Ole Miss: 14.4
Field Goal % (L5) +9.1%
Oklahoma: 54.6% vs Ole Miss: 45.5%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.4%
Oklahoma: 40.1% vs Ole Miss: 31.7%
Turnovers (L5) +30.5% more
Ole Miss: 12.4 vs Oklahoma: 8.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MISS Score 81.0 70
OU Score 88.0 86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.1 / 31.7 39.0 / 38.0
Assists 19.0 / 14.4 15.0 / 9.0
Blocks 3.5 / 3.9 6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 54.6 / 45.5 51.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 70.6 / 75.7 68.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 38.0 / 38.6 41.0 / 33.0
Steals 7.4 / 7.0 6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 8.6 / 12.4 7.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
6%MONEY94%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MISS
--
OU Advantage
21-16-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: +0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MISS
--
OU Advantage
17-19-1 (47.2%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: +0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
MISS
--
OU
19-18-0
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OU
MISS
OU
MISS
ML
78% 28-8
48% 16-17
59% 20-14
52% 17-16
ATS
72% 26-10
61% 20-13
59% 20-14
52% 17-16
TTL
75% 27-9
64% 21-12
100% 34-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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