Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Wildcats @ Bulldogs VILL @ BUT

VILLANOVA

WILDCATSVILL

11-2  |  Road

85
FINAL
Sat, Jan 3 • 12:00 PM ET
Hinkle Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

BUTLER

BULLDOGSBUT

10-4  |  Home

67
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
100%
📊
BULLDOGS
0%
WILDCATS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
126.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
BUTLER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Butler)
WildcatsVILL (-3.5) 0 BulldogsBUT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wildcats Cover

0.8%

Bulldogs Cover

99.2%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BUT -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUT)

VILL By 1-7 points

0.6%

VILL By 8-14 points

0.1%

BUT By 1-7 points

4.0%

BUT By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
51
VILLANOVA
75
BUTLER
Simulated Score
75
VILLANOVA
68
BUTLER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim Wildcats (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u146.5 Loss
Proj Total: 126.0
D
Sim u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 25, 2026 BUT @ VILL 73 - 82
Jan 3, 2026 VILL @ BUT 85 - 67
Mar 1, 2025 BUT @ VILL 70 - 80
Jan 1, 2025 VILL @ BUT 73 - 65
Feb 20, 2024 BUT @ VILL 62 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +46.3% more
Butler: 17.5 vs Villanova: 12.0
Blocks (L5) +21.7% more
Butler: 4.1 vs Villanova: 3.4
Rebounding (L5) +10.9% more
Butler: 41.3 vs Villanova: 37.3
Free Throw % (L5) +7.2%
Butler: 74.6% vs Villanova: 67.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VILL Score 51.0 85
BUT Score 75.0 67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.4 / 40.1 22.0 / 33.0
Assists 17.5 / 12.0 15.0 / 14.0
Blocks 4.1 / 3.4 0.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 44.3 / 42.2 38.0 / 55.0
Free Throw % 74.6 / 67.4 93.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 41.3 / 37.3 36.0 / 30.0
Steals 7.0 / 7.3 7.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 10.0 / 10.4 14.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
42%MONEY58%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
91%MONEY9%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VILL Advantage
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
BUT
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VILL Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
BUT
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
VILL
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +1.7
BUT
17-14-1
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUT
VILL
BUT
VILL
ML
62% 20-12
44% 14-18
65% 20-11
72% 23-9
ATS
56% 18-14
56% 18-14
65% 20-11
72% 23-9
TTL
50% 16-16
41% 13-19
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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