Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bears @ Horned Frogs BAY @ TCU

BAYLOR

BEARSBAY

10-2  |  Road

63
FINAL
Sat, Jan 3 • 2:00 PM ET
Schollmaier Arena
View Odds Details →

TCU

HORNED FROGSTCU

10-3  |  Home

69
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
100%
📊
HORNED FROGS
0%
BEARS --
HORNED FROGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
163.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-23.0
TCU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +23.0 points (TCU)
BearsBAY (-3.5) 0 Horned FrogsTCU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

1.1%

Horned Frogs Cover

98.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TCU -23.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TCU)

BAY By 1-7 points

0.8%

BAY By 8-14 points

0.1%

TCU By 1-7 points

4.8%

TCU By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
70
BAYLOR
93
TCU
Simulated Score
73
BAYLOR
76
TCU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Horned Frogs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Horned Frogs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Horned Frogs (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Sim Horned Frogs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o154.5 Loss
Proj Total: 163.0
D
Sim u154.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 24, 2026 TCU @ BAY 97 - 90
Jan 3, 2026 BAY @ TCU 63 - 69
Mar 4, 2025 BAY @ TCU 61 - 58
Jan 19, 2025 TCU @ BAY 74 - 71
Feb 26, 2024 BAY @ TCU 62 - 54
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +5.8%
TCU: 82.8% vs Baylor: 77.0%
Rebounding (L5) +20.6% more
Baylor: 47.0 vs TCU: 37.3
Blocks (L5) +16.2% more
Baylor: 6.7 vs TCU: 5.6
Assists (L5) +13.8% more
Baylor: 25.5 vs TCU: 22.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAY Score 70.0 63
TCU Score 93.0 69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.9 / 40.6 40.0 / 24.0
Assists 22.0 / 25.5 16.0 / 14.0
Blocks 5.6 / 6.7 10.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 51.7 / 60.7 38.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 82.8 / 77.0 65.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 37.3 / 47.0 43.0 / 34.0
Steals 8.3 / 8.4 6.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 9.6 / 11.1 11.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
33%MONEY67%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
41%MONEY59%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAY
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: -1.1
TCU Advantage
23-12-0 (65.7%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAY
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: -1.1
TCU Advantage
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
BAY
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +3.0
TCU
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TCU
BAY
TCU
BAY
ML
74% 26-9
58% 19-14
63% 19-11
53% 17-15
ATS
74% 26-9
58% 19-14
63% 19-11
53% 17-15
TTL
66% 23-12
45% 15-18
100% 30-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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