Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Rams @ Patriots URI @ GMU

RHODE ISLAND

RAMSURI

9-5  |  Road

50
FINAL
Sat, Jan 3 • 4:00 PM ET
EagleBank Arena
View Odds Details →

GEORGE MASON

PATRIOTSGMU

13-1  |  Home

61
AI Model Win Probability
RAMS
0%
📊
PATRIOTS
100%
RAMS --
PATRIOTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
130.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
RHODE ISLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Rhode Island)
RamsURI (-3.5) 0 PatriotsGMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rams Cover

88.5%

Patriots Cover

11.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around URI -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (URI)

URI By 1-7 points

20.1%

URI By 8-14 points

27.2%

GMU By 1-7 points

8.0%

GMU By 8-14 points

2.2%

AI Model Projected Score
71
RHODE ISLAND
59
GEORGE MASON
Simulated Score
73
RHODE ISLAND
77
GEORGE MASON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rams Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Patriots Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rams (-6.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim Patriots (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u139.5 Win
Proj Total: 130.0
D
Sim u139.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 24, 2026 GMU @ URI 65 - 74
Jan 3, 2026 URI @ GMU 50 - 61
Feb 8, 2025 URI @ GMU 67 - 82
Jan 4, 2025 GMU @ URI 59 - 62
Mar 6, 2024 GMU @ URI 69 - 51
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +52.9% more
Rhode Island: 13.0 vs George Mason: 6.1
Steals (L5) +50.2% more
Rhode Island: 9.6 vs George Mason: 4.8
Blocks (L5) +29.5% more
Rhode Island: 4.8 vs George Mason: 3.4
Free Throw % (L5) +2.0%
Rhode Island: 72.5% vs George Mason: 70.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
URI Score 71.0 50
GMU Score 59.0 61
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 26.7 / 28.0 50.0 / 29.0
Assists 12.8 / 9.5 13.0 / 9.0
Blocks 3.4 / 4.8 2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 49.4 / 42.3 43.0 / 35.0
Free Throw % 70.5 / 72.5 58.0 / 33.0
Rebounding 37.1 / 31.8 36.0 / 34.0
Steals 4.8 / 9.6 4.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 6.1 / 13.0 9.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
1%TICKETS99%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
6%MONEY94%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
URI
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.7 ATS +/-: -1.0
GMU Advantage
23-10-0 (69.7%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
URI
13-18-1 (41.9%)
Margin: 1.7 ATS +/-: -1.0
GMU Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
URI
13-19-0
O: 40.6% / U: 59.4% Total +/-: -5.9
GMU
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: -1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GMU
URI
GMU
URI
ML
55% 18-15
62% 20-12
73% 24-9
59% 19-13
ATS
55% 18-15
56% 18-14
73% 24-9
59% 19-13
TTL
58% 19-14
56% 18-14
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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