Home / NHL Projections NHL / Lightning @ Sharks TB @ SJ

TAMPA BAY

LIGHTNINGTB

24-13-3  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Jan 3 • 4:00 PM ET
SAP Center at San Jose
View Odds Details →

SAN JOSE

SHARKSSJ

20-17-3  |  Home

3
Goaltending
Andrei Vasilevskiy
GOALTENDER

Andrei Vasilevskiy

#88 | Goaltender
@
Alex Nedeljkovic
GOALTENDER

Alex Nedeljkovic

#33 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Andrei Vasilevskiy None-None 3.00 0.864 --
Alex Nedeljkovic None-None 4.51 0.750 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
3.00 Ldr GAA 4.51
0.864 Ldr Save % 0.750
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
LIGHTNING
0%
📊
SHARKS
100%
LIGHTNING --
SHARKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
SAN JOSE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
LightningTB (-3.5) 0 SharksSJ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lightning Cover

30.9%

Sharks Cover

69.1%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around SJ +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SJ)

TB By 1 goal

19.7%

TB By 2-3 goals

29.6%

SJ By 1 goal

12.1%

SJ By 2-3 goals

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
TAMPA BAY
2
SAN JOSE
Simulated Score
4
TAMPA BAY
2
SAN JOSE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lightning Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lightning Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Sharks (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim Lightning (-0) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.0 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 20, 2026 SJ @ TB 1 - 4
Jan 3, 2026 TB @ SJ 7 - 3
Jan 2, 2025 TB @ SJ 1 - 2
Dec 5, 2024 SJ @ TB 1 - 8
Mar 21, 2024 TB @ SJ 4 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +9.0% more
Tampa Bay: 20.7 vs San Jose: 18.9
Takeaways (L5) +40.7% more
San Jose: 5.2 vs Tampa Bay: 3.7
Blocked Shots (L5) +24.1% more
San Jose: 17.3 vs Tampa Bay: 13.9
Faceoff % (L5) +4.9%
San Jose: 49.8% vs Tampa Bay: 44.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 3.0 7
SJ Score 2.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 17.3 / 13.9 17.0 / 8.0
Faceoff % 49.8 / 44.9 55.9 / 44.1
Hits 18.9 / 20.7 23.0 / 8.0
Power Play % 34.9 / 30.6 33.3 / 60.0
Shots on Goal 23.3 / 25.0 22.0 / 26.0
Takeaways 5.2 / 3.7 7.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
53%MONEY47%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
53%MONEY47%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SJ
TB
SJ
TB
ML
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
0% 0-3
67% 2-1
ATS
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
TTL
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
100% 3-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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