PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
18-12-9 | Road
4
DETROIT
RED WINGSDET
24-14-4 | Home
1
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Kris Letang
#58 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
John Gibson
#36 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kris Letang | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| John Gibson | None-None | 2.06 | 0.931 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
2.06
--
Save %
0.931
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
100%
RED WINGS
0%
PENGUINS
--
RED WINGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around DET -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
PIT By 1 goal
12.1%
PIT By 2-3 goals
9.3%
DET By 1 goal
19.7%
DET By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Detroit
4
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
2
PITTSBURGH
Detroit
3
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Red Wings
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Wings
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Red Wings (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Red Wings (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 31, 2026
DET @ PIT
1 - 5
Jan 3, 2026
PIT @ DET
4 - 1
Jan 1, 2026
DET @ PIT
3 - 4
Sep 29, 2025
PIT @ DET
2 - 1
Sep 26, 2025
DET @ PIT
2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+8.5% more
Detroit: 17.3
vs
Pittsburgh: 15.9
Takeaways (L5)
+23.4% more
Pittsburgh: 5.3
vs
Detroit: 4.1
Shots on Goal (L5)
+12.0% more
Pittsburgh: 29.1
vs
Detroit: 25.6
Power Play % (L5)
+3.5%
Pittsburgh: 34.0%
vs
Detroit: 30.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
3.0
4
DET Score
4.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
17.3 / 15.9
12.0 / 13.0
Faceoff %
50.7 / 50.9
45.8 / 54.2
Hits
16.9 / 17.3
21.0 / 20.0
Power Play %
3055.0 / 3402.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
25.6 / 29.1
12.0 / 31.0
Takeaways
4.1 / 5.3
2.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
PIT
DET
PIT
ML
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
ATS
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
TTL
0%
0-3
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
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