Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Ospreys @ Bisons UNF @ LIP

NORTH FLORIDA

OSPREYSUNF

2-12  |  Road

74
FINAL
Sat, Jan 3 • 5:00 PM ET
Allen Arena
View Odds Details →

LIPSCOMB

BISONSLIP

8-6  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
OSPREYS
100%
📊
BISONS
0%
OSPREYS --
BISONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
165.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-45.0
LIPSCOMB
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +45.0 points (Lipscomb)
OspreysUNF (-3.5) 0 BisonsLIP (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ospreys Cover

0.0%

Bisons Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LIP -45.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LIP)

UNF By 1-7 points

0.0%

UNF By 8-14 points

0.0%

LIP By 1-7 points

0.0%

LIP By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
60
NORTH FLORIDA
105
LIPSCOMB
Simulated Score
72
NORTH FLORIDA
78
LIPSCOMB
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bisons Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bisons Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bisons (-18.5) Win
Proj Spread: -45.0
D
Sim Bisons (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u172.5 Win
Proj Total: 165.0
D
Sim u172.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 31, 2026 LIP @ UNF 100 - 94
Jan 3, 2026 UNF @ LIP 74 - 82
Jan 4, 2025 LIP @ UNF 96 - 64
Jan 31, 2024 LIP @ UNF 76 - 85
Feb 16, 2023 UNF @ LIP 114 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +89.6% more
Lipscomb: 8.4 vs North Florida: 4.4
Blocks (L5) +57.3% more
Lipscomb: 2.6 vs North Florida: 1.6
Assists (L5) +51.8% more
Lipscomb: 19.4 vs North Florida: 12.8
Rebounding (L5) +11.0% more
Lipscomb: 32.2 vs North Florida: 29.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNF Score 60.0 74
LIP Score 105.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.7 / 35.7 36.0 / 35.0
Assists 19.4 / 12.8 17.0 / 13.0
Blocks 2.6 / 1.6 2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 48.5 / 42.5 38.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 76.5 / 83.0 68.0 / 100.0
Rebounding 32.2 / 29.1 48.0 / 46.0
Steals 8.4 / 4.4 3.0 / 1.0
Turnovers 9.8 / 13.5 6.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
2%MONEY98%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
31%MONEY69%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNF
7-25-0 (21.9%)
Margin: -8.6 ATS +/-: +1.1
LIP Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNF Advantage
17-12-0 (58.6%)
Margin: -8.6 ATS +/-: +1.1
LIP
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
UNF
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +3.5
LIP
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LIP
UNF
LIP
UNF
ML
71% 22-9
69% 22-10
66% 19-10
66% 21-11
ATS
71% 22-9
69% 22-10
66% 19-10
66% 21-11
TTL
58% 18-13
66% 21-11
100% 29-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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