Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Rainbow Warriors @ Tritons HAW @ UCSD

HAWAI'I

RAINBOW WARRIORSHAW

11-2  |  Road

73
FINAL
Sat, Jan 3 • 10:00 PM ET
LionTree Arena
View Odds Details →

UC SAN DIEGO

TRITONSUCSD

11-3  |  Home

83
AI Model Win Probability
RAINBOW WARRIORS
100%
📊
TRITONS
0%
RAINBOW WARRIORS --
TRITONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
118.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
UC SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (UC San Diego)
Rainbow WarriorsHAW (-3.5) 0 TritonsUCSD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rainbow Warriors Cover

5.5%

Tritons Cover

94.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UCSD -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCSD)

HAW By 1-7 points

4.0%

HAW By 8-14 points

0.8%

UCSD By 1-7 points

13.7%

UCSD By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
51
HAWAI'I
67
UC SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
66
HAWAI'I
72
UC SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tritons Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tritons Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tritons (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim Tritons (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u147.5 Loss
Proj Total: 118.0
D
Sim u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 7, 2026 UCSD @ HAW 67 - 72
Jan 3, 2026 HAW @ UCSD 73 - 83
Feb 22, 2025 HAW @ UCSD 44 - 83
Jan 30, 2025 UCSD @ HAW 74 - 63
Feb 8, 2024 UCSD @ HAW 86 - 94
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +28.0% more
UC San Diego: 8.6 vs Hawai'i: 6.7
Free Throw % (L5) +6.7%
UC San Diego: 71.8% vs Hawai'i: 65.1%
Blocks (L5) +40.1% more
Hawai'i: 4.0 vs UC San Diego: 2.4
Assists (L5) +9.3% more
Hawai'i: 16.7 vs UC San Diego: 15.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HAW Score 51.0 73
UCSD Score 67.0 83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.7 / 37.6 32.0 / 30.0
Assists 15.1 / 16.7 18.0 / 21.0
Blocks 2.4 / 4.0 3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 43.3 / 48.7 48.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 71.8 / 65.1 87.0 / 84.0
Rebounding 40.1 / 42.4 33.0 / 29.0
Steals 8.6 / 6.7 8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 10.5 / 11.1 8.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
21%MONEY79%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HAW Advantage
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 9.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
UCSD
23-11-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HAW
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: 9.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
UCSD Advantage
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
HAW
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -0.1
UCSD
12-20-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -6.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCSD
HAW
UCSD
HAW
ML
56% 19-15
61% 20-13
65% 22-12
68% 21-10
ATS
50% 17-17
67% 22-11
65% 22-12
68% 21-10
TTL
62% 21-13
61% 20-13
100% 34-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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