Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mavericks @ Thunderbirds UTA @ SUU

UT ARLINGTON

MAVERICKSUTA

9-5  |  Road

86
FINAL
Sat, Jan 3 • 8:30 PM ET
America First Events Center
View Odds Details →

SOUTHERN UTAH

THUNDERBIRDSSUU

4-10  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
0%
📊
THUNDERBIRDS
100%
MAVERICKS --
THUNDERBIRDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
UT ARLINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (UT Arlington)
MavericksUTA (-3.5) 0 ThunderbirdsSUU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

93.3%

Thunderbirds Cover

6.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UTA -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTA)

UTA By 1-7 points

15.3%

UTA By 8-14 points

25.3%

SUU By 1-7 points

4.8%

SUU By 8-14 points

1.1%

AI Model Projected Score
80
UT ARLINGTON
65
SOUTHERN UTAH
Simulated Score
74
UT ARLINGTON
78
SOUTHERN UTAH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mavericks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunderbirds Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mavericks (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim Thunderbirds (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o136.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim u136.5 Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 SUU @ UTA 63 - 69
Feb 14, 2026 SUU @ UTA 78 - 73
Jan 29, 2026 SUU @ UTA 61 - 80
Jan 3, 2026 UTA @ SUU 86 - 77
Jan 30, 2025 SUU @ UTA 68 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +43.4% more
UT Arlington: 7.8 vs Southern Utah: 4.4
Free Throw % (L5) +10.7%
UT Arlington: 75.2% vs Southern Utah: 64.5%
Blocks (L5) +53.0% more
Southern Utah: 4.1 vs UT Arlington: 2.7
Field Goal % (L5) +3.0%
Southern Utah: 43.7% vs UT Arlington: 40.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTA Score 80.0 86
SUU Score 65.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.8 / 29.7 33.0 / 58.0
Assists 11.3 / 11.7 15.0 / 13.0
Blocks 4.1 / 2.7 6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 43.7 / 40.7 47.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 64.5 / 75.2 76.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 35.7 / 34.2 30.0 / 33.0
Steals 4.4 / 7.8 7.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 13.6 / 13.4 14.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
85%MONEY15%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
72%MONEY28%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
13%MONEY87%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTA Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
SUU
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -3.2 ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTA Advantage
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
SUU
14-14-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -3.2 ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
UTA
7-23-0
O: 23.3% / U: 76.7% Total +/-: -4.7
SUU
17-12-0
O: 58.6% / U: 41.4% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SUU
UTA
SUU
UTA
ML
61% 19-12
50% 16-16
68% 21-10
62% 20-12
ATS
71% 22-9
59% 19-13
69% 22-10
62% 20-12
TTL
52% 16-15
53% 17-15
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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