PURDUE
BOILERMAKERSPUR
12-1 | Road
89
WISCONSIN
BADGERSWIS
9-4 | Home
73
AI Model Win Probability
BOILERMAKERS
0%
BADGERS
100%
BOILERMAKERS
--
BADGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-31.0
PURDUE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +31.0 points (Purdue)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PUR -31.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PUR)
PUR By 1-7 points
0.8%
PUR By 8-14 points
4.0%
WIS By 1-7 points
0.1%
WIS By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Purdue
90
PURDUE
Wisconsin
59
WISCONSIN
Simulated Score
Purdue
68
PURDUE
Wisconsin
72
WISCONSIN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Boilermakers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Badgers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Boilermakers (+5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -31.0
D
Sim
Badgers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u153.5
Loss
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim
u153.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 7, 2026
WIS @ PUR
97 - 93
Jan 3, 2026
PUR @ WIS
89 - 73
Feb 15, 2025
WIS @ PUR
94 - 84
Mar 16, 2024
WIS @ PUR
76 - 75
Mar 10, 2024
WIS @ PUR
70 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+39.1% more
Purdue: 7.5
vs
Wisconsin: 4.6
Assists (L5)
+23.1% more
Purdue: 22.0
vs
Wisconsin: 16.9
Free Throw % (L5)
+15.3%
Purdue: 84.0%
vs
Wisconsin: 68.7%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.1%
Purdue: 39.0%
vs
Wisconsin: 30.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PUR Score
90.0
89
WIS Score
59.0
73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.8 / 39.0
16.0 / 37.0
Assists
16.9 / 22.0
7.0 / 22.0
Blocks
3.2 / 3.0
2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
47.1 / 54.0
42.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
68.7 / 84.0
81.0 / 68.0
Rebounding
38.6 / 38.8
39.0 / 37.0
Steals
4.6 / 7.5
7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
10.6 / 10.4
11.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PUR
Advantage
30-9-0
(76.9%)
Margin: 11.1
ATS +/-: -0.1
WIS
24-11-0
(68.6%)
Margin: 6.9
ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PUR
17-22-0
(43.6%)
Margin: 11.1
ATS +/-: -0.1
WIS
Advantage
20-15-0
(57.1%)
Margin: 6.9
ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
PUR
21-18-0
O: 53.8% / U: 46.2%
Total +/-: +1.4
WIS
22-13-0
O: 62.9% / U: 37.1%
Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WIS
PUR
WIS
PUR
ML
60%
21-14
67%
26-13
69%
24-11
66%
25-13
ATS
51%
18-17
64%
25-14
69%
24-11
66%
25-13
TTL
57%
20-15
51%
20-19
100%
35-0
100%
38-0
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