Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Wolf Pack @ Bulldogs NEV @ FRES

NEVADA

WOLF PACKNEV

10-3  |  Road

66
FINAL
Sat, Jan 3 • 7:00 PM ET
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FRESNO STATE

BULLDOGSFRES

6-7  |  Home

65
AI Model Win Probability
WOLF PACK
0%
📊
BULLDOGS
100%
WOLF PACK --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
182.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
NEVADA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Nevada)
Wolf PackNEV (-3.5) 0 BulldogsFRES (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wolf Pack Cover

96.4%

Bulldogs Cover

3.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NEV -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NEV)

NEV By 1-7 points

10.7%

NEV By 8-14 points

21.6%

FRES By 1-7 points

2.7%

FRES By 8-14 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
100
NEVADA
82
FRESNO STATE
Simulated Score
75
NEVADA
71
FRESNO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wolf Pack Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wolf Pack Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wolf Pack (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Wolf Pack (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o147.5 Loss
Proj Total: 182.0
D
Sim u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 7, 2026 FRES @ NEV 59 - 69
Jan 3, 2026 NEV @ FRES 66 - 65
Mar 12, 2025 FRES @ NEV 71 - 86
Feb 10, 2025 FRES @ NEV 69 - 94
Jan 11, 2025 NEV @ FRES 77 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +47.2% more
Nevada: 4.0 vs Fresno State: 2.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +10.5%
Nevada: 40.4% vs Fresno State: 29.9%
Field Goal % (L5) +5.6%
Nevada: 46.1% vs Fresno State: 40.5%
Turnovers (L5) +90.5% more
Fresno State: 14.6 vs Nevada: 7.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NEV Score 100.0 66
FRES Score 82.0 65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.9 / 40.4 42.0 / 29.0
Assists 12.8 / 12.6 14.0 / 11.0
Blocks 2.1 / 4.0 0.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 40.5 / 46.1 44.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 78.7 / 75.8 82.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 33.5 / 32.7 36.0 / 29.0
Steals 8.6 / 7.7 6.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 14.6 / 7.7 15.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
94%TICKETS6%
94%MONEY6%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
80%MONEY20%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
27%MONEY73%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NEV Advantage
24-13-0 (64.9%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +1.2
FRES
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NEV
22-15-0 (59.5%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +1.2
FRES Advantage
21-10-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
NEV
21-16-0
O: 56.8% / U: 43.2% Total +/-: +2.7
FRES
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -4.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FRES
NEV
FRES
NEV
ML
59% 19-13
62% 23-14
74% 23-8
73% 27-10
ATS
75% 24-8
73% 27-10
74% 23-8
73% 27-10
TTL
56% 18-14
49% 18-19
100% 31-0
100% 37-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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