NORTHERN ARIZONA
LUMBERJACKSNAU
6-8 | Road
68
MONTANA STATE
BOBCATSMTST
7-7 | Home
77
AI Model Win Probability
LUMBERJACKS
0%
BOBCATS
100%
LUMBERJACKS
--
BOBCATS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
158.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-36.0
NORTHERN ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +36.0 points (Northern Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NAU -36.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NAU)
NAU By 1-7 points
0.2%
NAU By 8-14 points
1.4%
MTST By 1-7 points
0.0%
MTST By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Northern Arizona
97
NORTHERN ARIZONA
Montana State
61
MONTANA STATE
Simulated Score
Northern Arizona
72
NORTHERN ARIZONA
Montana State
78
MONTANA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Lumberjacks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bobcats
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Lumberjacks (-10.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -36.0
D
Sim
Bobcats (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o141.5
Win
Proj Total: 158.0
D
Sim
u141.5
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 2, 2026
MTST @ NAU
76 - 65
Jan 3, 2026
NAU @ MTST
68 - 77
Feb 6, 2025
MTST @ NAU
64 - 69
Jan 11, 2025
NAU @ MTST
53 - 58
Feb 10, 2024
MTST @ NAU
71 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+30.9% more
Northern Arizona: 13.3
vs
Montana State: 9.2
Assists (L5)
+27.9% more
Northern Arizona: 15.8
vs
Montana State: 11.4
Steals (L5)
+19.3% more
Northern Arizona: 8.5
vs
Montana State: 6.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+10.3%
Northern Arizona: 42.2%
vs
Montana State: 31.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NAU Score
97.0
68
MTST Score
61.0
77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.9 / 42.2
39.0 / 42.0
Assists
11.4 / 15.8
12.0 / 9.0
Blocks
2.5 / 2.1
5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
45.4 / 47.9
46.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
69.9 / 68.5
93.0 / 64.0
Rebounding
33.8 / 32.2
30.0 / 27.0
Steals
6.8 / 8.5
5.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
9.2 / 13.3
8.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NAU
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -5.1
ATS +/-: -2.7
MTST
Advantage
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 6.5
ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NAU
14-15-0
(48.3%)
Margin: -5.1
ATS +/-: -2.7
MTST
Advantage
16-12-1
(57.1%)
Margin: 6.5
ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
NAU
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1%
Total +/-: -2.3
MTST
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MTST
NAU
MTST
NAU
ML
52%
16-15
62%
20-12
67%
20-10
81%
26-6
ATS
52%
16-15
62%
20-12
67%
20-10
81%
26-6
TTL
65%
20-11
66%
21-11
100%
30-0
100%
32-0
Contextual Game News
New Mexico Lobos to Host Washington State and Arizona State in P…
NC State Basketball: Justin Gainey Era Begins with 32-Game Slate…
UConn Adds Shaw with Deep Basketball Roots and Veteran Presence …
What Are the Biggest Takeaways From the Kings’ Summer League?
Union Minister of Finance and Corporate Affairs Inaugurates Indo…