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SAN JOSÉ STATE

SPARTANSSJSU

5-8  |  Road

78
FINAL
Sat, Jan 3 • 4:00 PM ET
Dee Glen Smith Spectrum
View Odds Details →

UTAH STATE

AGGIESUSU

11-1  |  Home

96
AI Model Win Probability
SPARTANS
100%
📊
AGGIES
0%
SPARTANS --
AGGIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
161.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
UTAH STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Utah State)
SpartansSJSU (-3.5) 0 AggiesUSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Spartans Cover

4.5%

Aggies Cover

95.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around USU -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USU)

SJSU By 1-7 points

3.3%

SJSU By 8-14 points

0.6%

USU By 1-7 points

12.2%

USU By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
72
SAN JOSÉ STATE
89
UTAH STATE
Simulated Score
65
SAN JOSÉ STATE
78
UTAH STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Aggies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Aggies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Aggies (+21.5) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim Aggies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o149.5 Win
Proj Total: 161.0
D
Sim u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 3, 2026 SJSU @ USU 78 - 96
Feb 19, 2025 SJSU @ USU 57 - 105
Jan 7, 2025 USU @ SJSU 85 - 78
Mar 6, 2024 USU @ SJSU 90 - 70
Jan 30, 2024 SJSU @ USU 61 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +52.3% more
Utah State: 10.6 vs San José State: 7.0
Assists (L5) +51.8% more
Utah State: 16.4 vs San José State: 10.8
Rebounding (L5) +26.8% more
Utah State: 37.5 vs San José State: 29.6
Field Goal % (L5) +10.9%
Utah State: 51.7% vs San José State: 40.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SJSU Score 72.0 78
USU Score 89.0 96
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.1 / 33.5 41.0 / 50.0
Assists 16.4 / 10.8 20.0 / 12.0
Blocks 2.1 / 2.6 6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 51.7 / 40.8 63.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 69.7 / 83.2 81.0 / 82.0
Rebounding 37.5 / 29.6 30.0 / 26.0
Steals 10.6 / 7.0 5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 14.3 / 14.1 8.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
31%MONEY69%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
93%MONEY7%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SJSU
9-24-0 (27.3%)
Margin: -6.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
USU Advantage
29-7-0 (80.6%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SJSU Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -6.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
USU
16-19-0 (45.7%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
SJSU
21-11-0
O: 65.6% / U: 34.4% Total +/-: +5.3
USU
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USU
SJSU
USU
SJSU
ML
49% 17-18
73% 24-9
66% 21-11
62% 20-12
ATS
74% 26-9
73% 24-9
67% 22-11
62% 20-12
TTL
51% 18-17
61% 20-13
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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