Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Wildcats @ Utes ARIZ @ UTAH

ARIZONA

WILDCATSARIZ

13-0  |  Road

97
FINAL
Sat, Jan 3 • 4:00 PM ET
Jon M. Huntsman Center
View Odds Details →

UTAH

UTESUTAH

8-5  |  Home

78
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
0%
📊
UTES
100%
WILDCATS --
UTES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
164.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+16.0
UTAH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
WildcatsARIZ (-3.5) 0 UtesUTAH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wildcats Cover

5.5%

Utes Cover

94.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UTAH +16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTAH)

ARIZ By 1-7 points

13.7%

ARIZ By 8-14 points

24.3%

UTAH By 1-7 points

4.0%

UTAH By 8-14 points

0.8%

AI Model Projected Score
90
ARIZONA
74
UTAH
Simulated Score
71
ARIZONA
82
UTAH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Wildcats Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Utes Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Utes (+18.5) Win
Proj Spread: +16.0
D
Sim Utes (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o160.5 Win
Proj Total: 164.0
D
Sim u160.5 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 3, 2026 ARIZ @ UTAH 97 - 78
Feb 26, 2025 UTAH @ ARIZ 66 - 83
Feb 8, 2024 ARIZ @ UTAH 105 - 99
Jan 6, 2024 UTAH @ ARIZ 73 - 92
Feb 16, 2023 UTAH @ ARIZ 62 - 88
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +33.3% more
Arizona: 21.0 vs Utah: 14.0
Steals (L5) +30.2% more
Arizona: 9.4 vs Utah: 6.5
Rebounding (L5) +25.5% more
Arizona: 44.8 vs Utah: 33.4
Blocks (L5) +23.8% more
Arizona: 4.7 vs Utah: 3.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARIZ Score 90.0 97
UTAH Score 74.0 78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.5 / 39.5 29.0 / 39.0
Assists 14.0 / 21.0 13.0 / 18.0
Blocks 3.6 / 4.7 2.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 48.4 / 52.7 44.0 / 54.0
Free Throw % 68.1 / 73.6 92.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 33.4 / 44.8 30.0 / 43.0
Steals 6.5 / 9.4 5.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 11.6 / 13.4 12.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
98%TICKETS2%
85%MONEY15%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
73%MONEY27%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARIZ Advantage
36-3-0 (92.3%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +3.2
UTAH
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.8 ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARIZ Advantage
23-15-1 (60.5%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +3.2
UTAH
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -4.8 ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
ARIZ
20-19-0
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: -1.4
UTAH
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTAH
ARIZ
UTAH
ARIZ
ML
56% 18-14
67% 26-13
67% 20-10
68% 23-11
ATS
56% 18-14
74% 29-10
67% 20-10
68% 23-11
TTL
41% 13-19
56% 22-17
100% 30-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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