Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Blue Devils @ Seminoles DUKE @ FSU

DUKE

BLUE DEVILSDUKE

12-1  |  Road

91
FINAL
Sat, Jan 3 • 3:45 PM ET
Tucker Center
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA STATE

SEMINOLESFSU

7-7  |  Home

87
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE DEVILS
0%
📊
SEMINOLES
100%
BLUE DEVILS --
SEMINOLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
203.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+7.0
FLORIDA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Blue DevilsDUKE (-3.5) 0 SeminolesFSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blue Devils Cover

24.2%

Seminoles Cover

75.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around FSU +7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FSU)

DUKE By 1-7 points

26.2%

DUKE By 8-14 points

25.3%

FSU By 1-7 points

15.3%

FSU By 8-14 points

5.8%

AI Model Projected Score
105
DUKE
98
FLORIDA STATE
Simulated Score
78
DUKE
72
FLORIDA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Blue Devils Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Blue Devils Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Seminoles (+16.5) Win
Proj Spread: +7.0
D
Sim Blue Devils (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o163.5 Win
Proj Total: 203.0
D
Sim u163.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 FSU @ DUKE 79 - 80
Jan 3, 2026 DUKE @ FSU 91 - 87
Mar 1, 2025 FSU @ DUKE 65 - 100
Feb 17, 2024 DUKE @ FSU 76 - 67
Dec 31, 2022 FSU @ DUKE 67 - 86
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +28.5% more
Duke: 9.4 vs Florida State: 6.7
Blocks (L5) +21.8% more
Duke: 3.3 vs Florida State: 2.5
Turnovers (L5) +13.5% more
Duke: 12.7 vs Florida State: 11.0
Field Goal % (L5) +6.4%
Duke: 46.7% vs Florida State: 40.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DUKE Score 105.0 91
FSU Score 98.0 87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.7 / 31.9 47.0 / 44.0
Assists 15.1 / 14.4 17.0 / 23.0
Blocks 2.5 / 3.3 5.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 40.3 / 46.7 53.0 / 53.0
Free Throw % 68.6 / 67.3 69.0 / 92.0
Rebounding 39.0 / 40.5 24.0 / 31.0
Steals 6.7 / 9.4 10.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 11.0 / 12.7 13.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
98%TICKETS2%
94%MONEY6%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DUKE Advantage
35-3-0 (92.1%)
Margin: 18.0 ATS +/-: +1.6
FSU
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 2.4 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DUKE
20-18-0 (52.6%)
Margin: 18.0 ATS +/-: +1.6
FSU Advantage
19-13-1 (59.4%)
Margin: 2.4 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
DUKE
14-24-0
O: 36.8% / U: 63.2% Total +/-: -3.2
FSU
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: -2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FSU
DUKE
FSU
DUKE
ML
64% 21-12
71% 27-11
59% 19-13
73% 24-9
ATS
55% 18-15
79% 30-8
59% 19-13
73% 24-9
TTL
48% 16-17
47% 18-20
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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