CALIFORNIA BAPTIST
LANCERSCBU
10-5 | Road
76
TARLETON STATE
TEXANSTAR
10-5 | Home
81
AI Model Win Probability
LANCERS
100%
TEXANS
0%
LANCERS
--
TEXANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
146.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
TARLETON STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (Tarleton State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TAR -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TAR)
CBU By 1-7 points
1.1%
CBU By 8-14 points
0.1%
TAR By 1-7 points
5.8%
TAR By 8-14 points
15.3%
AI Model Projected Score
California Baptist
62
CALIFORNIA BAPTIST
Tarleton State
84
TARLETON STATE
Simulated Score
California Baptist
68
CALIFORNIA BAPTIST
Tarleton State
72
TARLETON STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Texans
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Texans
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Texans (-1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim
Texans (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o144.5
Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Sim
u144.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 28, 2026
TAR @ CBU
67 - 82
Feb 5, 2026
TAR @ CBU
55 - 56
Jan 3, 2026
CBU @ TAR
76 - 81
Mar 13, 2025
TAR @ CBU
51 - 55
Mar 6, 2025
TAR @ CBU
48 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+197.6% more
Tarleton State: 12.7
vs
California Baptist: 4.3
Assists (L5)
+38.0% more
Tarleton State: 13.0
vs
California Baptist: 9.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.0%
Tarleton State: 34.0%
vs
California Baptist: 28.0%
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.8%
Tarleton State: 47.1%
vs
California Baptist: 43.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CBU Score
62.0
76
TAR Score
84.0
81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.0 / 28.0
50.0 / 35.0
Assists
13.0 / 9.4
9.0 / 12.0
Blocks
1.7 / 1.9
2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
47.1 / 43.4
45.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
72.4 / 75.5
74.0 / 72.0
Rebounding
32.5 / 36.3
23.0 / 37.0
Steals
12.7 / 4.3
13.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
12.0 / 16.4
14.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CBU
Advantage
25-9-0
(73.5%)
Margin: 5.1
ATS +/-: +1.5
TAR
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CBU
Advantage
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 5.1
ATS +/-: +1.5
TAR
14-14-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
CBU
12-22-0
O: 35.3% / U: 64.7%
Total +/-: -4.1
TAR
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4%
Total +/-: +4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TAR
CBU
TAR
CBU
ML
59%
19-13
50%
17-17
66%
21-11
76%
25-8
ATS
69%
22-10
53%
18-16
66%
21-11
76%
25-8
TTL
50%
16-16
47%
16-18
100%
32-0
100%
33-0
Contextual Game News
Aiden Tobiason Brings Sharpshooting and Playmaking to Syracuse B…
Kansas Shakes Up Offensive Line: Amir Herring Promoted to Starti…
Jalen Shelley Compares Texas A&M Basketball's Press to Minnesota…
College Football Week 5: Northwestern's Rise, Big Ten Coaches Un…
UCLA's Unlikely Heroes: TaShawn James, Jalen Woods, and Semaj Mo…