Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Roadrunners @ Aggies CSUB @ UCD

CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD

ROADRUNNERSCSUB

6-9  |  Road

81
FINAL
Sat, Jan 3 • 5:00 PM ET
University Credit Union Center
View Odds Details →

UC DAVIS

AGGIESUCD

8-5  |  Home

79
AI Model Win Probability
ROADRUNNERS
100%
📊
AGGIES
0%
ROADRUNNERS --
AGGIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
164.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
UC DAVIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (UC Davis)
RoadrunnersCSUB (-3.5) 0 AggiesUCD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Roadrunners Cover

42.1%

Aggies Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UCD -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCD)

CSUB By 1-7 points

23.0%

CSUB By 8-14 points

12.2%

UCD By 1-7 points

26.8%

UCD By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
81
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
83
UC DAVIS
Simulated Score
72
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
78
UC DAVIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Aggies Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Aggies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Aggies (+10.5) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Aggies (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o150.5 Win
Proj Total: 164.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 31, 2026 UCD @ CSUB 80 - 72
Jan 3, 2026 CSUB @ UCD 81 - 79
Feb 20, 2025 CSUB @ UCD 71 - 66
Jan 2, 2025 UCD @ CSUB 64 - 75
Feb 24, 2024 UCD @ CSUB 56 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +111.9% more
UC Davis: 21.0 vs Cal State Bakersfield: 9.9
Steals (L5) +21.5% more
UC Davis: 10.0 vs Cal State Bakersfield: 8.2
Free Throw % (L5) +8.3%
UC Davis: 78.7% vs Cal State Bakersfield: 70.5%
Field Goal % (L5) +5.6%
UC Davis: 50.0% vs Cal State Bakersfield: 44.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CSUB Score 81.0 81
UCD Score 83.0 79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.6 / 33.7 40.0 / 33.0
Assists 21.0 / 9.9 17.0 / 13.0
Blocks 1.9 / 4.8 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 50.0 / 44.4 41.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 78.7 / 70.5 75.0 / 85.0
Rebounding 34.7 / 34.9 35.0 / 34.0
Steals 10.0 / 8.2 5.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 12.4 / 12.2 14.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
1%TICKETS99%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
67%MONEY33%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CSUB
8-24-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -9.1 ATS +/-: -3.6
UCD Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CSUB
11-18-1 (37.9%)
Margin: -9.1 ATS +/-: -3.6
UCD Advantage
17-14-1 (54.8%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
CSUB
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: +5.1
UCD
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: +1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCD
CSUB
UCD
CSUB
ML
58% 19-14
55% 17-14
64% 21-12
71% 22-9
ATS
61% 20-13
61% 19-12
64% 21-12
71% 22-9
TTL
61% 20-13
58% 18-13
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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