WESTERN ILLINOIS
LEATHERNECKSWIU
4-10 | Road
50
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
REDHAWKSSEMO
7-7 | Home
73
AI Model Win Probability
LEATHERNECKS
0%
REDHAWKS
100%
LEATHERNECKS
--
REDHAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
191.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+13.0
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SEMO +13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEMO)
WIU By 1-7 points
18.6%
WIU By 8-14 points
26.8%
SEMO By 1-7 points
6.8%
SEMO By 8-14 points
1.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Western Illinois
102
WESTERN ILLINOIS
Southeast Missouri State
89
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
Simulated Score
Western Illinois
70
WESTERN ILLINOIS
Southeast Missouri State
73
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Leathernecks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Redhawks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Redhawks (+13.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +13.0
D
Sim
Redhawks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o147.5
Loss
Proj Total: 191.0
D
Sim
u147.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 29, 2026
SEMO @ WIU
78 - 74
Jan 3, 2026
WIU @ SEMO
50 - 73
Feb 20, 2025
WIU @ SEMO
66 - 87
Jan 25, 2025
SEMO @ WIU
72 - 51
Feb 3, 2024
WIU @ SEMO
76 - 55
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.8%
Western Illinois: 68.6%
vs
Southeast Missouri State: 63.8%
Blocks (L5)
+70.8% more
Southeast Missouri State: 5.0
vs
Western Illinois: 2.9
Assists (L5)
+33.0% more
Southeast Missouri State: 15.0
vs
Western Illinois: 11.3
Steals (L5)
+8.6% more
Southeast Missouri State: 6.6
vs
Western Illinois: 6.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WIU Score
102.0
50
SEMO Score
89.0
73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.3 / 28.8
31.0 / 19.0
Assists
15.0 / 11.3
11.0 / 7.0
Blocks
5.0 / 2.9
2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
47.4 / 39.0
54.0 / 33.0
Free Throw %
63.8 / 68.6
68.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
37.1 / 36.4
30.0 / 22.0
Steals
6.6 / 6.1
9.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
13.5 / 12.6
11.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WIU
5-26-0
(16.1%)
Margin: -11.9
ATS +/-: -5.3
SEMO
Advantage
20-13-0
(60.6%)
Margin: 3.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WIU
11-17-0
(39.3%)
Margin: -11.9
ATS +/-: -5.3
SEMO
Advantage
14-16-0
(46.7%)
Margin: 3.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
WIU
13-15-0
O: 46.4% / U: 53.6%
Total +/-: -0.1
SEMO
13-17-0
O: 43.3% / U: 56.7%
Total +/-: -2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEMO
WIU
SEMO
WIU
ML
64%
21-12
45%
14-17
50%
15-15
61%
19-12
ATS
67%
22-11
52%
16-15
50%
15-15
61%
19-12
TTL
58%
19-14
45%
14-17
100%
30-0
100%
31-0
Contextual Game News
