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NORFOLK STATE

SPARTANSNORF

6-10  |  Road

67
FINAL
Sat, Jan 3 • 4:30 PM ET
McDougald-McLendon Arena
View Odds Details →

NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL

EAGLESNCCU

4-11  |  Home

69
AI Model Win Probability
SPARTANS
100%
📊
EAGLES
0%
SPARTANS --
EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
165.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (North Carolina Central)
SpartansNORF (-3.5) 0 EaglesNCCU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Spartans Cover

0.3%

Eagles Cover

99.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NCCU -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NCCU)

NORF By 1-7 points

0.3%

NORF By 8-14 points

0.0%

NCCU By 1-7 points

2.2%

NCCU By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
69
NORFOLK STATE
96
NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
Simulated Score
68
NORFOLK STATE
72
NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Eagles Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Eagles Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Eagles (+2) Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Sim Eagles (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o141.0 Loss
Proj Total: 165.0
D
Sim u141.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 7, 2026 NCCU @ NORF 68 - 75
Jan 3, 2026 NORF @ NCCU 67 - 69
Mar 3, 2025 NORF @ NCCU 87 - 91
Feb 3, 2025 NCCU @ NORF 78 - 81
Feb 19, 2024 NCCU @ NORF 74 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +115.9% more
North Carolina Central: 10.2 vs Norfolk State: 4.7
Blocks (L5) +87.2% more
North Carolina Central: 2.8 vs Norfolk State: 1.5
Turnovers (L5) +27.4% more
North Carolina Central: 16.2 vs Norfolk State: 12.7
Assists (L5) +11.2% more
North Carolina Central: 14.0 vs Norfolk State: 12.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NORF Score 69.0 67
NCCU Score 96.0 69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 24.6 / 39.5 19.0 / 24.0
Assists 14.0 / 12.6 17.0 / 9.0
Blocks 2.8 / 1.5 5.0 / 9.0
Field Goal % 48.5 / 40.2 39.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 67.5 / 68.7 68.0 / 65.0
Rebounding 32.4 / 32.7 44.0 / 40.0
Steals 10.2 / 4.7 6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 16.2 / 12.7 13.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NORF Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 2.6 ATS +/-: -1.0
NCCU
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NORF
13-15-0 (46.4%)
Margin: 2.6 ATS +/-: -1.0
NCCU Advantage
15-13-0 (53.6%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
NORF
19-9-0
O: 67.9% / U: 32.1% Total +/-: +4.6
NCCU
13-15-0
O: 46.4% / U: 53.6% Total +/-: +2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NCCU
NORF
NCCU
NORF
ML
65% 20-11
67% 20-10
81% 22-5
71% 20-8
ATS
71% 22-9
63% 19-11
81% 22-5
72% 21-8
TTL
55% 17-14
60% 18-12
100% 27-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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