Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Aggies @ Seawolves NCAT @ STBK

NORTH CAROLINA A&T

AGGIESNCAT

7-6  |  Road

80
FINAL
Sat, Jan 3 • 4:00 PM ET
Stony Brook Arena
View Odds Details →

STONY BROOK

SEAWOLVESSTBK

8-7  |  Home

81
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
100%
📊
SEAWOLVES
0%
AGGIES --
SEAWOLVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
156.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
STONY BROOK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Stony Brook)
AggiesNCAT (-3.5) 0 SeawolvesSTBK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Aggies Cover

2.3%

Seawolves Cover

97.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around STBK -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STBK)

NCAT By 1-7 points

1.7%

NCAT By 8-14 points

0.3%

STBK By 1-7 points

8.0%

STBK By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
68
NORTH CAROLINA A&T
88
STONY BROOK
Simulated Score
68
NORTH CAROLINA A&T
72
STONY BROOK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Seawolves Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Seawolves Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Seawolves (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim Seawolves (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o141.5 Win
Proj Total: 156.0
D
Sim u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 3, 2026 NCAT @ STBK 80 - 81
Feb 22, 2025 STBK @ NCAT 72 - 73
Jan 25, 2025 NCAT @ STBK 74 - 89
Feb 22, 2024 NCAT @ STBK 64 - 80
Mar 4, 2023 STBK @ NCAT 76 - 61
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +27.9% more
Stony Brook: 5.6 vs North Carolina A&T: 4.3
Turnovers (L5) +22.6% more
Stony Brook: 13.4 vs North Carolina A&T: 11.0
Blocks (L5) +48.0% more
North Carolina A&T: 4.1 vs Stony Brook: 2.1
Assists (L5) +22.5% more
North Carolina A&T: 14.0 vs Stony Brook: 10.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NCAT Score 68.0 80
STBK Score 88.0 81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.2 / 31.0 48.0 / 44.0
Assists 10.9 / 14.0 20.0 / 14.0
Blocks 2.1 / 4.1 7.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 38.0 / 45.9 50.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 70.0 / 71.9 79.0 / 89.0
Rebounding 34.5 / 38.1 25.0 / 48.0
Steals 5.6 / 4.3 6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 13.4 / 11.0 8.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NCAT
11-19-0 (36.7%)
Margin: -2.8 ATS +/-: +1.5
STBK Advantage
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NCAT Advantage
16-12-0 (57.1%)
Margin: -2.8 ATS +/-: +1.5
STBK
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
NCAT
16-12-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +3.6
STBK
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STBK
NCAT
STBK
NCAT
ML
61% 19-12
52% 14-13
71% 22-9
63% 17-10
ATS
61% 19-12
63% 17-10
71% 22-9
64% 18-10
TTL
65% 20-11
69% 18-8-1
100% 31-0
100% 28-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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