Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Hatters @ Bears STET @ CARK

STETSON

HATTERSSTET

5-9  |  Road

73
FINAL
Sat, Jan 3 • 2:00 PM ET
Farris Center
View Odds Details →

CENTRAL ARKANSAS

BEARSCARK

6-8  |  Home

93
AI Model Win Probability
HATTERS
100%
📊
BEARS
0%
HATTERS --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
163.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.0
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +25.0 points (Central Arkansas)
HattersSTET (-3.5) 0 BearsCARK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hatters Cover

0.6%

Bears Cover

99.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CARK -25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CARK)

STET By 1-7 points

0.5%

STET By 8-14 points

0.1%

CARK By 1-7 points

3.3%

CARK By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
69
STETSON
94
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Simulated Score
70
STETSON
78
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bears Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bears (-11.5) Win
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Sim Bears (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o146.5 Win
Proj Total: 163.0
D
Sim u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 19, 2026 CARK @ STET 88 - 76
Jan 3, 2026 STET @ CARK 73 - 93
Mar 2, 2025 CARK @ STET 77 - 72
Jan 9, 2025 CARK @ STET 65 - 75
Feb 3, 2024 STET @ CARK 73 - 62
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +30.3% more
Central Arkansas: 17.4 vs Stetson: 13.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +10.5%
Central Arkansas: 36.8% vs Stetson: 26.3%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.5%
Central Arkansas: 46.8% vs Stetson: 43.3%
Free Throw % (L5) +2.4%
Central Arkansas: 69.6% vs Stetson: 67.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STET Score 69.0 73
CARK Score 94.0 93
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.8 / 26.3 41.0 / 35.0
Assists 17.4 / 13.3 22.0 / 16.0
Blocks 1.4 / 1.5 1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 46.8 / 43.3 51.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 69.6 / 67.2 78.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 32.3 / 31.8 35.0 / 28.0
Steals 7.5 / 6.9 8.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 11.2 / 13.5 11.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STET
12-21-0 (36.4%)
Margin: -6.1 ATS +/-: +2.0
CARK Advantage
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +5.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STET
18-13-0 (58.1%)
Margin: -6.1 ATS +/-: +2.0
CARK Advantage
19-10-3 (65.5%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +5.7
⚖️ Over/Under
STET
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: +1.6
CARK
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CARK
STET
CARK
STET
ML
67% 22-11
55% 18-15
70% 23-10
73% 24-9
ATS
61% 20-13
64% 21-12
70% 23-10
73% 24-9
TTL
50% 16-16-1
61% 20-13
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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