JAMES MADISON
DUKESJMU
7-7 | Road
78
ARKANSAS STATE
RED WOLVESARST
10-4 | Home
74
AI Model Win Probability
DUKES
100%
RED WOLVES
0%
DUKES
--
RED WOLVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
126.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
ARKANSAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Arkansas State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ARST -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARST)
JMU By 1-7 points
13.7%
JMU By 8-14 points
4.8%
ARST By 1-7 points
25.3%
ARST By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
James Madison
59
JAMES MADISON
Arkansas State
67
ARKANSAS STATE
Simulated Score
James Madison
75
JAMES MADISON
Arkansas State
78
ARKANSAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Red Wolves
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Wolves
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Red Wolves (+8.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim
Red Wolves (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u159.5
Win
Proj Total: 126.0
D
Sim
u159.5
Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 3, 2026
JMU @ ARST
78 - 74
Jan 4, 2025
ARST @ JMU
62 - 67
Mar 11, 2024
ARST @ JMU
71 - 91
Feb 7, 2024
JMU @ ARST
77 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+27.0% more
Arkansas State: 7.0
vs
James Madison: 5.5
Assists (L5)
+24.9% more
Arkansas State: 14.5
vs
James Madison: 11.6
Rebounding (L5)
+9.8% more
Arkansas State: 39.6
vs
James Madison: 36.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.6%
Arkansas State: 78.6%
vs
James Madison: 72.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
JMU Score
59.0
78
ARST Score
67.0
74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.5 / 31.9
25.0 / 47.0
Assists
14.5 / 11.6
12.0 / 11.0
Blocks
3.0 / 4.3
2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
48.5 / 43.4
36.0 / 53.0
Free Throw %
78.6 / 72.0
59.0 / 62.0
Rebounding
39.6 / 36.1
42.0 / 38.0
Steals
7.0 / 5.5
9.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
12.9 / 12.1
8.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JMU
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -0.5
ARST
Advantage
20-12-0
(62.5%)
Margin: 5.8
ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JMU
13-19-0
(40.6%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -0.5
ARST
Advantage
15-15-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 5.8
ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
JMU
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6%
Total +/-: +3.4
ARST
15-14-1
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3%
Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARST
JMU
ARST
JMU
ML
48%
15-16
64%
21-12
53%
16-14
66%
21-11
ATS
58%
18-13
67%
22-11
53%
16-14
66%
21-11
TTL
61%
19-12
67%
22-11
100%
30-0
100%
32-0
