KENTUCKY
WILDCATSUK
9-4 | Road
74
ALABAMA
CRIMSON TIDEALA
10-3 | Home
89
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
100%
CRIMSON TIDE
0%
WILDCATS
--
CRIMSON TIDE
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
150.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (Alabama)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ALA -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ALA)
UK By 1-7 points
0.2%
UK By 8-14 points
0.0%
ALA By 1-7 points
1.7%
ALA By 8-14 points
6.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Kentucky
61
KENTUCKY
Alabama
89
ALABAMA
Simulated Score
Kentucky
75
KENTUCKY
Alabama
78
ALABAMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Crimson Tide
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Crimson Tide
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Crimson Tide (-4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
D
Sim
Crimson Tide (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u173.5
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Sim
u173.5
Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 3, 2026
UK @ ALA
74 - 89
Mar 14, 2025
UK @ ALA
70 - 99
Feb 22, 2025
UK @ ALA
83 - 96
Jan 18, 2025
ALA @ UK
102 - 97
Feb 24, 2024
ALA @ UK
95 - 117
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+43.1% more
Alabama: 7.2
vs
Kentucky: 5.0
Rebounding (L5)
+26.9% more
Alabama: 43.5
vs
Kentucky: 34.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+1.8%
Alabama: 37.1%
vs
Kentucky: 35.4%
Free Throw % (L5)
+1.6%
Alabama: 77.2%
vs
Kentucky: 75.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UK Score
61.0
74
ALA Score
89.0
89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.1 / 35.4
39.0 / 21.0
Assists
18.2 / 18.1
17.0 / 9.0
Blocks
7.2 / 5.0
3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
44.8 / 49.7
46.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
77.2 / 75.7
75.0 / 69.0
Rebounding
43.5 / 34.3
41.0 / 37.0
Steals
6.7 / 8.3
8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
8.7 / 10.4
10.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UK
22-14-0
(61.1%)
Margin: 6.2
ATS +/-: -1.4
ALA
Advantage
25-10-0
(71.4%)
Margin: 8.5
ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UK
Advantage
18-18-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 6.2
ATS +/-: -1.4
ALA
15-19-0
(44.1%)
Margin: 8.5
ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
UK
18-18-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -0.5
ALA
17-16-1
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ALA
UK
ALA
UK
ML
63%
22-13
71%
25-10
58%
19-14
72%
23-9
ATS
60%
21-14
83%
29-6
58%
19-14
72%
23-9
TTL
63%
22-13
63%
22-13
100%
33-0
100%
32-0
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