VIRGINIA
CAVALIERSUVA
11-2 | Road
76
NC STATE
WOLFPACKNCSU
10-4 | Home
61
AI Model Win Probability
CAVALIERS
100%
WOLFPACK
0%
CAVALIERS
--
WOLFPACK
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
178.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
NC STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (NC State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NCSU -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NCSU)
UVA By 1-7 points
2.7%
UVA By 8-14 points
0.5%
NCSU By 1-7 points
10.7%
NCSU By 8-14 points
21.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Virginia
80
VIRGINIA
NC State
98
NC STATE
Simulated Score
Virginia
60
VIRGINIA
NC State
65
NC STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Wolfpack
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wolfpack
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Wolfpack (-4.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim
Wolfpack (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o152.5
Loss
Proj Total: 178.0
D
Sim
u152.5
Win
Proj Total: 125.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 12, 2026
NCSU @ UVA
74 - 81
Feb 24, 2026
NCSU @ UVA
61 - 90
Jan 3, 2026
UVA @ NCSU
76 - 61
Dec 31, 2024
NCSU @ UVA
67 - 70
Mar 15, 2024
NCSU @ UVA
73 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+7.1%
NC State: 74.0%
vs
Virginia: 66.9%
Blocks (L5)
+42.3% more
Virginia: 5.3
vs
NC State: 3.1
Rebounding (L5)
+10.5% more
Virginia: 44.0
vs
NC State: 39.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UVA Score
80.0
76
NCSU Score
98.0
61
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.2 / 34.7
25.0 / 39.0
Assists
17.8 / 18.4
7.0 / 14.0
Blocks
3.1 / 5.3
1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
46.3 / 47.6
36.0 / 50.0
Free Throw %
74.0 / 66.9
80.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
39.4 / 44.0
24.0 / 36.0
Steals
8.4 / 9.1
9.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
12.2 / 12.1
10.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UVA
Advantage
30-6-0
(83.3%)
Margin: 11.6
ATS +/-: +1.0
NCSU
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 6.9
ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UVA
Advantage
17-17-2
(50.0%)
Margin: 11.6
ATS +/-: +1.0
NCSU
16-17-1
(48.5%)
Margin: 6.9
ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
UVA
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
NCSU
21-13-0
O: 61.8% / U: 38.2%
Total +/-: +6.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NCSU
UVA
NCSU
UVA
ML
59%
20-14
67%
24-12
55%
18-15
72%
26-10
ATS
71%
24-10
75%
27-9
55%
18-15
72%
26-10
TTL
71%
24-10
53%
19-17
100%
33-0
100%
36-0
Contextual Game News
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