Home / NBA Projections NBA / Trail Blazers @ Pelicans POR @ NO

PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

14-20  |  Road

122
FINAL
Fri, Jan 2 • 8:00 PM ET
Smoothie King Center
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

8-27  |  Home

109
AI Model Win Probability
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
📊
PELICANS
0%
TRAIL BLAZERS --
PELICANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
242.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (New Orleans)
Trail BlazersPOR (-3.5) 0 PelicansNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Trail Blazers Cover

34.5%

Pelicans Cover

65.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NO -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NO)

POR By 1-7 points

20.1%

POR By 8-14 points

9.3%

NO By 1-7 points

27.4%

NO By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
119
PORTLAND
123
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
108
PORTLAND
115
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pelicans Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pelicans Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pelicans (+3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Pelicans (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o241.0 Loss
Proj Total: 242.0
D
Sim u241.0 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 2, 2026 NO @ POR 106 - 118
Jan 2, 2026 POR @ NO 122 - 109
Dec 11, 2025 POR @ NO 120 - 143
Nov 12, 2025 POR @ NO 125 - 117
Jan 8, 2025 POR @ NO 119 - 100
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +100.3% more
New Orleans: 6.6 vs Portland: 3.3
Free Throw % (L5) +9.3%
New Orleans: 81.6% vs Portland: 72.2%
Turnovers (L5) +40.0% more
Portland: 20.0 vs New Orleans: 12.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.2%
Portland: 37.2% vs New Orleans: 33.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
POR Score 119.0 122
NO Score 123.0 109
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.0 / 37.2 27.0 / 34.0
Assists 24.2 / 23.4 22.0 / 27.0
Blocks 6.6 / 3.3 11.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 44.9 / 43.9 45.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 81.6 / 72.2 72.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 45.7 / 47.2 42.0 / 46.0
Steals 7.1 / 7.3 8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.0 / 20.0 15.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
64%MONEY36%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
90%MONEY10%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
POR Advantage
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
POR
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
POR
NO
POR
ML
62% 98-61
53% 56-49
58% 48-35
55% 49-40
ATS
68% 107-51-1
62% 65-39-1
58% 48-35
55% 49-40
TTL
75% 119-40
56% 58-46-1
100% 83-0
100% 89-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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