CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
11-22 | Road
121
MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
14-20 | Home
122
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
100%
BUCKS
0%
HORNETS
--
BUCKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
220.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIL -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
CHA By 1-7 points
5.8%
CHA By 8-14 points
1.4%
MIL By 1-7 points
16.9%
MIL By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Charlotte
103
CHARLOTTE
Milwaukee
117
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Charlotte
109
CHARLOTTE
Milwaukee
121
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bucks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bucks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bucks (-5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim
Bucks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u233.0
Loss
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Sim
u233.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 2, 2026
CHA @ MIL
121 - 122
Dec 29, 2025
MIL @ CHA
123 - 113
Nov 14, 2025
CHA @ MIL
134 - 147
Nov 12, 2025
MIL @ CHA
100 - 111
Feb 5, 2025
MIL @ CHA
112 - 102
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+34.6% more
Milwaukee: 4.6
vs
Charlotte: 3.4
Assists (L5)
+20.2% more
Charlotte: 30.3
vs
Milwaukee: 24.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHA Score
103.0
121
MIL Score
117.0
122
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.7 / 41.1
43.0 / 45.0
Assists
24.2 / 30.3
31.0 / 27.0
Blocks
4.6 / 3.4
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
47.3 / 47.2
52.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
76.3 / 76.4
89.0 / 82.0
Rebounding
43.3 / 44.2
36.0 / 39.0
Steals
6.9 / 7.5
7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
14.2 / 14.3
11.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHA
Advantage
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
MIL
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
MIL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
CHA
MIL
CHA
ML
64%
61-35
61%
60-39
60%
49-32
48%
40-44
ATS
68%
65-31
60%
59-40
60%
49-32
48%
40-44
TTL
55%
53-43
58%
57-42
100%
81-0
100%
84-0
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