ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
16-19 | Road
111
NEW YORK
KNICKSNY
23-10 | Home
99
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
100%
KNICKS
0%
HAWKS
--
KNICKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
249.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NY -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NY)
ATL By 1-7 points
24.3%
ATL By 8-14 points
13.7%
NY By 1-7 points
26.2%
NY By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
124
ATLANTA
New York
125
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Atlanta
108
ATLANTA
New York
112
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Knicks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Knicks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Knicks (+5.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Knicks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o241.5
Loss
Proj Total: 249.0
D
Sim
u241.5
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 30, 2026
NY @ ATL
140 - 89
Apr 28, 2026
ATL @ NY
97 - 126
Apr 25, 2026
NY @ ATL
114 - 98
Apr 23, 2026
NY @ ATL
108 - 109
Apr 20, 2026
ATL @ NY
107 - 106
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+18.0%
New York: 86.2%
vs
Atlanta: 68.2%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.4%
New York: 41.7%
vs
Atlanta: 39.3%
Blocks (L5)
+19.7% more
Atlanta: 4.0
vs
New York: 3.2
Turnovers (L5)
+11.9% more
Atlanta: 13.4
vs
New York: 11.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
124.0
111
NY Score
125.0
99
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
41.7 / 39.3
21.0 / 33.0
Assists
30.1 / 34.0
27.0 / 31.0
Blocks
3.2 / 4.0
6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
47.3 / 48.2
37.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
86.2 / 68.2
86.0 / 60.0
Rebounding
44.8 / 42.2
52.0 / 49.0
Steals
7.8 / 8.5
8.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
11.8 / 13.4
15.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
NY
Advantage
70-32-0
(68.6%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
NY
Advantage
58-44-0
(56.9%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.5
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
NY
47-55-0
O: 46.1% / U: 53.9%
Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NY
ATL
NY
ATL
ML
61%
114-72
50%
52-52
56%
57-45
55%
48-40
ATS
67%
124-62
53%
55-48-1
56%
57-45
55%
48-40
TTL
72%
133-53
53%
55-48-1
100%
102-0
100%
88-0
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