Home / NBA Projections NBA / Grizzlies @ Lakers MEM @ LAL

MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

15-18  |  Road

121
FINAL
Fri, Jan 2 • 10:30 PM ET
crypto.com Arena
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

20-11  |  Home

128
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
0%
📊
LAKERS
100%
GRIZZLIES --
LAKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
216.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Memphis)
GrizzliesMEM (-3.5) 0 LakersLAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Grizzlies Cover

84.1%

Lakers Cover

15.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MEM -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)

MEM By 1-7 points

23.0%

MEM By 8-14 points

27.2%

LAL By 1-7 points

10.7%

LAL By 8-14 points

3.3%

AI Model Projected Score
113
MEMPHIS
103
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
108
MEMPHIS
115
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Grizzlies Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lakers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Grizzlies (-4) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Lakers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u241.0 Loss
Proj Total: 216.0
D
Sim u241.0 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 4, 2026 MEM @ LAL 114 - 120
Jan 2, 2026 MEM @ LAL 121 - 128
Oct 31, 2025 LAL @ MEM 117 - 112
Mar 29, 2025 LAL @ MEM 134 - 127
Dec 15, 2024 MEM @ LAL 110 - 116
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +52.2% more
Memphis: 8.1 vs Los Angeles: 3.9
Rebounding (L5) +20.6% more
Memphis: 46.1 vs Los Angeles: 36.6
Assists (L5) +16.4% more
Memphis: 29.1 vs Los Angeles: 24.3
Free Throw % (L5) +8.9%
Memphis: 81.3% vs Los Angeles: 72.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 113.0 121
LAL Score 103.0 128
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.7 / 36.4 34.0 / 33.0
Assists 24.3 / 29.1 26.0 / 32.0
Blocks 3.9 / 8.1 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 48.1 / 49.6 58.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 72.4 / 81.3 87.0 / 65.0
Rebounding 36.6 / 46.1 42.0 / 34.0
Steals 9.6 / 8.2 9.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 17.0 / 17.3 20.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
LAL Advantage
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
LAL Advantage
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAL
MEM
LAL
MEM
ML
61% 68-43
57% 59-44
54% 49-42
50% 41-41
ATS
61% 67-43-1
63% 65-38
54% 49-42
50% 41-41
TTL
61% 66-43-2
70% 71-31-1
100% 91-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Matt Barnes: Clippers Are Cursed, Urges Steve Ballmer to Rebrand
tmz 2 hours, 6 minutes ago
Luka Doncic Embraces Lakers Legacy: 'It's an Honor, Not Pressure…
yahoo 8 hours, 5 minutes ago
Desmond Bane Returns to FedExForum as Grizzlies Host Magic in Pr…
actionnews5 1 day, 2 hours ago
Luka Doncic Primed for MVP-Caliber Season with Lakers After Offs…
nypost 1 day, 2 hours ago
Anonymous NBA Scout Shuts Down JJ Redick's Lakers Title Hopes wi…
bleacherreport 1 day, 8 hours ago