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SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

8-26  |  Road

102
FINAL
Fri, Jan 2 • 9:00 PM ET
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PHOENIX

SUNSPHX

19-14  |  Home

129
AI Model Win Probability
KINGS
0%
📊
SUNS
100%
KINGS --
SUNS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
252.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
SACRAMENTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Sacramento)
KingsSAC (-3.5) 0 SunsPHX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kings Cover

84.1%

Suns Cover

15.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SAC -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)

SAC By 1-7 points

23.0%

SAC By 8-14 points

27.2%

PHX By 1-7 points

10.7%

PHX By 8-14 points

3.3%

AI Model Projected Score
131
SACRAMENTO
121
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
110
SACRAMENTO
115
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Kings Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Suns Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Kings (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Suns (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 252.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 3, 2026 PHX @ SAC 114 - 103
Jan 2, 2026 SAC @ PHX 102 - 129
Nov 26, 2025 PHX @ SAC 112 - 100
Oct 22, 2025 SAC @ PHX 116 - 120
Apr 13, 2025 PHX @ SAC 98 - 109
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +10.5% more
Sacramento: 4.7 vs Phoenix: 4.2
Rebounding (L5) +27.0% more
Phoenix: 49.6 vs Sacramento: 39.1
Steals (L5) +10.3% more
Phoenix: 8.7 vs Sacramento: 7.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.8%
Phoenix: 39.2% vs Sacramento: 33.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAC Score 131.0 102
PHX Score 121.0 129
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.2 / 33.3 26.0 / 36.0
Assists 25.0 / 25.4 23.0 / 20.0
Blocks 4.2 / 4.7 9.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 43.9 / 45.1 56.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 83.1 / 84.4 82.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 49.6 / 39.1 42.0 / 42.0
Steals 8.7 / 7.9 16.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 14.1 / 14.0 12.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
61%MONEY39%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
13%MONEY87%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
19%MONEY81%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
PHX Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
PHX Advantage
50-38-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +0.8
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
SAC
PHX
SAC
ML
57% 60-45
55% 55-45
51% 45-43
61% 50-32
ATS
58% 59-43-3
54% 52-45-3
51% 45-43
61% 50-32
TTL
59% 61-42-2
58% 57-42-1
100% 88-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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