Home / NBA Projections NBA / Nuggets @ Cavaliers DEN @ CLE

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

23-10  |  Road

108
FINAL
Fri, Jan 2 • 7:30 PM ET
Rocket Arena
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

CAVALIERSCLE

19-16  |  Home

113
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
100%
📊
CAVALIERS
0%
NUGGETS --
CAVALIERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
248.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Cleveland)
NuggetsDEN (-3.5) 0 CavaliersCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nuggets Cover

15.9%

Cavaliers Cover

84.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CLE -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

DEN By 1-7 points

10.7%

DEN By 8-14 points

3.3%

CLE By 1-7 points

23.0%

CLE By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
119
DENVER
129
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
108
DENVER
115
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cavaliers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cavaliers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cavaliers (+14) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Cavaliers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o240.0 Loss
Proj Total: 248.0
D
Sim u240.0 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 9, 2026 CLE @ DEN 119 - 117
Jan 2, 2026 DEN @ CLE 108 - 113
Dec 27, 2024 CLE @ DEN 149 - 135
Dec 5, 2024 DEN @ CLE 114 - 126
Mar 31, 2024 CLE @ DEN 101 - 130
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +55.1% more
Cleveland: 8.9 vs Denver: 5.7
Blocks (L5) +33.6% more
Cleveland: 5.5 vs Denver: 4.1
Assists (L5) +15.9% more
Cleveland: 29.8 vs Denver: 25.7
Turnovers (L5) +15.6% more
Cleveland: 14.4 vs Denver: 12.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 119.0 108
CLE Score 129.0 113
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.8 / 36.2 41.0 / 36.0
Assists 29.8 / 25.7 32.0 / 26.0
Blocks 5.5 / 4.1 8.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 47.6 / 48.6 50.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 82.0 / 84.8 58.0 / 85.0
Rebounding 47.7 / 43.4 55.0 / 32.0
Steals 8.9 / 5.7 6.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 14.4 / 12.5 17.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
68%MONEY32%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN Advantage
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
CLE
60-40-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
CLE
40-60-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
DEN
CLE
DEN
ML
60% 69-46
54% 57-48
56% 55-44
55% 47-39
ATS
67% 75-37-3
63% 65-38-2
56% 55-44
55% 47-39
TTL
59% 68-47
54% 56-48-1
100% 99-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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