Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Oregon @ Indiana ORE @ IU

OREGON

OREGONORE

13-1  |  Road

22
FINAL
Fri, Jan 9 • 7:30 PM ET
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
View Odds Details →

INDIANA

INDIANAIU

14-0  |  Home

56
AI Model Win Probability
OREGON
100%
📊
INDIANA
0%
OREGON --
INDIANA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Indiana)
OregonORE (-3.5) 0 IndianaIU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Oregon Cover

30.9%

Indiana Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around IU -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IU)

ORE By 1-6 points

12.9%

ORE By 7-13 points

9.6%

IU By 1-6 points

16.5%

IU By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
24
OREGON
31
INDIANA
Simulated Score
17
OREGON
38
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Indiana Win
0% Win Prob
A
Sim Indiana Win
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Indiana (-3) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
A
Sim Indiana (-3) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o50.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
A
Sim o50.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 9, 2026 ORE @ IU 22 - 56
Oct 11, 2025 IU @ ORE 30 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +61.1% more
Oregon: 1.1 vs Indiana: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ORE Score 24.0 22
IU Score 31.0 56
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
22%MONEY78%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORE
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 24.3 ATS +/-: -3.8
IU Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 33.4 ATS +/-: -3.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORE Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 24.3 ATS +/-: -3.8
IU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 33.4 ATS +/-: -3.8
⚖️ Over/Under
ORE
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +10.3
IU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IU
ORE
IU
ORE
ML
100% 5-0
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
ATS
60% 3-2
25% 1-3
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
TTL
60% 3-2
25% 1-3
100% 5-0
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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