Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Fighting Irish @ Golden Bears ND @ CAL

NOTRE DAME

FIGHTING IRISHND

10-4  |  Road

71
FINAL
Fri, Jan 2 • 11:00 PM ET
Haas Pavilion
View Odds Details →

CALIFORNIA

GOLDEN BEARSCAL

12-2  |  Home

72
AI Model Win Probability
FIGHTING IRISH
100%
📊
GOLDEN BEARS
0%
FIGHTING IRISH --
GOLDEN BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
156.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
CALIFORNIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (California)
Fighting IrishND (-3.5) 0 Golden BearsCAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Fighting Irish Cover

15.9%

Golden Bears Cover

84.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CAL -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CAL)

ND By 1-7 points

10.7%

ND By 8-14 points

3.3%

CAL By 1-7 points

23.0%

CAL By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
73
NOTRE DAME
83
CALIFORNIA
Simulated Score
69
NOTRE DAME
73
CALIFORNIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Golden Bears Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Golden Bears Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Golden Bears (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Golden Bears (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o139.5 Win
Proj Total: 156.0
D
Sim u139.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 2, 2026 ND @ CAL 71 - 72
Mar 8, 2025 CAL @ ND 110 - 112
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +85.3% more
California: 7.4 vs Notre Dame: 4.0
Blocks (L5) +53.3% more
California: 4.4 vs Notre Dame: 2.9
Assists (L5) +38.1% more
California: 14.7 vs Notre Dame: 10.6
Free Throw % (L5) +13.2%
California: 81.0% vs Notre Dame: 67.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ND Score 73.0 71
CAL Score 83.0 72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.9 / 33.8 28.0 / 35.0
Assists 14.7 / 10.6 13.0 / 14.0
Blocks 4.4 / 2.9 1.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 42.7 / 41.0 41.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 81.0 / 67.7 75.0 / 62.0
Rebounding 33.7 / 42.0 34.0 / 44.0
Steals 7.4 / 4.0 4.0 / 0.0
Turnovers 8.2 / 12.4 3.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ND
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.9
CAL Advantage
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ND
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.9
CAL Advantage
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ND
22-9-0
O: 71.0% / U: 29.0% Total +/-: +5.0
CAL
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAL
ND
CAL
ND
ML
61% 20-13
65% 20-11
77% 24-7
77% 24-7
ATS
64% 21-12
55% 17-14
78% 25-7
77% 24-7
TTL
70% 23-10
68% 21-10
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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