Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Pilots @ Gaels PORT @ SMC

PORTLAND

PILOTSPORT

7-8  |  Road

57
FINAL
Fri, Jan 2 • 10:00 PM ET
University Credit Union Pavilion
View Odds Details →

SAINT MARY'S

GAELSSMC

13-2  |  Home

78
AI Model Win Probability
PILOTS
100%
📊
GAELS
0%
PILOTS --
GAELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
183.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
SAINT MARY'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Saint Mary's)
PilotsPORT (-3.5) 0 GaelsSMC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pilots Cover

6.7%

Gaels Cover

93.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SMC -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SMC)

PORT By 1-7 points

4.8%

PORT By 8-14 points

1.1%

SMC By 1-7 points

15.3%

SMC By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
84
PORTLAND
99
SAINT MARY'S
Simulated Score
62
PORTLAND
75
SAINT MARY'S
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Gaels Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Gaels Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Gaels (+21.5) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim Gaels (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o147.5 Loss
Proj Total: 183.0
D
Sim u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 24, 2026 SMC @ PORT 75 - 69
Jan 2, 2026 PORT @ SMC 57 - 78
Feb 19, 2025 PORT @ SMC 66 - 79
Jan 4, 2025 SMC @ PORT 81 - 58
Feb 10, 2024 SMC @ PORT 76 - 51
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +19.9%
Saint Mary's: 85.6% vs Portland: 65.7%
Rebounding (L5) +14.6% more
Saint Mary's: 36.9 vs Portland: 32.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.2%
Saint Mary's: 33.9% vs Portland: 30.7%
Blocks (L5) +34.2% more
Portland: 3.7 vs Saint Mary's: 2.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PORT Score 84.0 57
SMC Score 99.0 78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.9 / 30.7 38.0 / 11.0
Assists 12.4 / 17.8 19.0 / 16.0
Blocks 2.4 / 3.7 5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 46.9 / 47.8 49.0 / 34.0
Free Throw % 85.6 / 65.7 76.0 / 87.0
Rebounding 36.9 / 32.2 36.0 / 33.0
Steals 5.7 / 6.8 6.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 9.9 / 13.0 10.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
29%MONEY71%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PORT
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: +0.2
SMC Advantage
27-6-0 (81.8%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PORT
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: +0.2
SMC Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
PORT
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -1.0
SMC
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SMC
PORT
SMC
PORT
ML
56% 18-14
48% 16-17
82% 23-5
82% 27-6
ATS
62% 20-12
67% 22-11
83% 24-5
82% 28-6
TTL
53% 17-15
55% 18-15
100% 29-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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