SAN DIEGO
TOREROSUSD
6-8 | Road
64
SAN FRANCISCO
DONSSF
9-6 | Home
74
AI Model Win Probability
TOREROS
100%
DONS
0%
TOREROS
--
DONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
122.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-42.0
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +42.0 points (San Francisco)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SF -42.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)
USD By 1-7 points
0.0%
USD By 8-14 points
0.0%
SF By 1-7 points
0.0%
SF By 8-14 points
0.3%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
40
SAN DIEGO
San Francisco
82
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
San Diego
71
SAN DIEGO
San Francisco
78
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Dons
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Dons
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Dons (-11.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -42.0
D
Sim
Dons (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u152.5
Win
Proj Total: 122.0
D
Sim
u152.5
Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 15, 2026
SF @ USD
92 - 79
Jan 2, 2026
USD @ SF
64 - 74
Feb 15, 2025
SF @ USD
84 - 61
Jan 25, 2025
USD @ SF
69 - 81
Feb 1, 2024
USD @ SF
79 - 95
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+25.0% more
San Francisco: 35.7
vs
San Diego: 28.6
Steals (L5)
+51.4% more
San Diego: 9.5
vs
San Francisco: 4.6
Assists (L5)
+24.7% more
San Diego: 16.6
vs
San Francisco: 12.5
Turnovers (L5)
+23.4% more
San Diego: 11.7
vs
San Francisco: 9.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
USD Score
40.0
64
SF Score
82.0
74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.1 / 36.6
20.0 / 18.0
Assists
12.5 / 16.6
14.0 / 10.0
Blocks
2.7 / 3.0
2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
43.1 / 43.9
42.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
72.2 / 70.8
76.0 / 83.0
Rebounding
35.7 / 28.6
42.0 / 25.0
Steals
4.6 / 9.5
6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
9.0 / 11.7
11.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USD
12-21-0
(36.4%)
Margin: -3.4
ATS +/-: -0.5
SF
Advantage
17-16-0
(51.5%)
Margin: 1.5
ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USD
Advantage
16-15-0
(51.6%)
Margin: -3.4
ATS +/-: -0.5
SF
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 1.5
ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
USD
12-17-2
O: 41.4% / U: 58.6%
Total +/-: +0.5
SF
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9%
Total +/-: +1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
USD
SF
USD
ML
39%
13-20
58%
19-14
64%
21-12
70%
23-10
ATS
42%
14-19
55%
18-15
64%
21-12
70%
23-10
TTL
73%
24-9
61%
20-13
100%
33-0
100%
33-0
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