Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Miners @ Bears UTEP @ MOST

UTEP

MINERSUTEP

4-8  |  Road

55
FINAL
Fri, Jan 2 • 8:00 PM ET
Great Southern Bank Arena
View Odds Details →

MISSOURI STATE

BEARSMOST

7-5  |  Home

79
AI Model Win Probability
MINERS
100%
📊
BEARS
0%
MINERS --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
MISSOURI STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Missouri State)
MinersUTEP (-3.5) 0 BearsMOST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Miners Cover

5.5%

Bears Cover

94.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MOST -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MOST)

UTEP By 1-7 points

4.0%

UTEP By 8-14 points

0.8%

MOST By 1-7 points

13.7%

MOST By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
69
UTEP
85
MISSOURI STATE
Simulated Score
70
UTEP
72
MISSOURI STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bears Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bears (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim Bears (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o131.5 Win
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim u131.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 24, 2026 MOST @ UTEP 62 - 57
Jan 2, 2026 UTEP @ MOST 55 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +24.8% more
UTEP: 13.8 vs Missouri State: 10.4
Blocks (L5) +10.8% more
UTEP: 4.2 vs Missouri State: 3.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.8%
UTEP: 31.3% vs Missouri State: 28.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTEP Score 69.0 55
MOST Score 85.0 79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.5 / 31.3 42.0 / 27.0
Assists 10.9 / 11.7 16.0 / 8.0
Blocks 3.7 / 4.2 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 42.0 / 42.2 53.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 67.7 / 69.0 73.0 / 65.0
Rebounding 35.7 / 35.5 31.0 / 25.0
Steals 6.9 / 7.4 7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 10.4 / 13.8 10.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTEP
11-20-0 (35.5%)
Margin: -3.1 ATS +/-: -1.7
MOST Advantage
16-18-0 (47.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTEP
13-15-0 (46.4%)
Margin: -3.1 ATS +/-: -1.7
MOST Advantage
18-13-0 (58.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
UTEP
12-15-1
O: 44.4% / U: 55.6% Total +/-: -1.2
MOST
19-12-0
O: 61.3% / U: 38.7% Total +/-: +3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MOST
UTEP
MOST
UTEP
ML
65% 22-12
70% 21-9
62% 21-13
72% 21-8
ATS
68% 23-11
57% 17-13
62% 21-13
73% 22-8
TTL
44% 15-19
60% 18-12
100% 34-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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