SIENA
SAINTSSIE
9-4 | Road
72
IONA
GAELSIONA
9-5 | Home
75
AI Model Win Probability
SAINTS
100%
GAELS
0%
SAINTS
--
GAELS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
115.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
IONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Iona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around IONA -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IONA)
SIE By 1-7 points
4.8%
SIE By 8-14 points
1.1%
IONA By 1-7 points
15.3%
IONA By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Siena
50
SIENA
Iona
65
IONA
Simulated Score
Siena
73
SIENA
Iona
78
IONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Gaels
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Gaels
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Gaels (+1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim
Gaels (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u149.5
Win
Proj Total: 115.0
D
Sim
u149.5
Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 5, 2026
IONA @ SIE
72 - 79
Jan 2, 2026
SIE @ IONA
72 - 75
Jan 25, 2025
SIE @ IONA
68 - 72
Jan 5, 2025
IONA @ SIE
74 - 73
Mar 9, 2024
SIE @ IONA
54 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+36.5% more
Iona: 8.0
vs
Siena: 5.9
Turnovers (L5)
+20.5% more
Iona: 11.2
vs
Siena: 9.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.1%
Iona: 31.2%
vs
Siena: 25.1%
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.7%
Iona: 76.8%
vs
Siena: 71.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SIE Score
50.0
72
IONA Score
65.0
75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.2 / 25.1
39.0 / 33.0
Assists
10.2 / 10.4
22.0 / 17.0
Blocks
2.3 / 3.7
6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
41.4 / 40.6
50.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
76.8 / 71.1
62.0 / 100.0
Rebounding
34.6 / 33.7
36.0 / 31.0
Steals
8.0 / 5.9
6.0 / 13.0
Turnovers
11.2 / 9.3
16.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SIE
Advantage
23-12-0
(65.7%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +1.3
IONA
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SIE
Advantage
21-14-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +1.3
IONA
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
SIE
11-24-0
O: 31.4% / U: 68.6%
Total +/-: -1.9
IONA
12-20-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5%
Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IONA
SIE
IONA
SIE
ML
41%
13-19
66%
23-12
62%
20-12
48%
16-17
ATS
53%
17-15
66%
23-12
62%
20-12
48%
16-17
TTL
66%
21-11
54%
19-16
100%
32-0
100%
33-0
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