USC
TROJANSUSC
12-1 | Road
66
MICHIGAN
WOLVERINESMICH
12-0 | Home
96
AI Model Win Probability
TROJANS
100%
WOLVERINES
0%
TROJANS
--
WOLVERINES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
150.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Michigan)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MICH -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MICH)
USC By 1-7 points
13.7%
USC By 8-14 points
4.8%
MICH By 1-7 points
25.3%
MICH By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
USC
71
USC
Michigan
79
MICHIGAN
Simulated Score
USC
72
USC
Michigan
75
MICHIGAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Wolverines
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wolverines
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Wolverines (+22.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim
Wolverines (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u173.5
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Sim
u173.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 2, 2026
USC @ MICH
66 - 96
Jan 4, 2025
MICH @ USC
85 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+16.2% more
Michigan: 22.8
vs
USC: 19.7
Rebounding (L5)
+11.6% more
Michigan: 45.1
vs
USC: 40.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+11.0%
Michigan: 40.6%
vs
USC: 29.6%
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.2%
Michigan: 56.4%
vs
USC: 52.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
USC Score
71.0
66
MICH Score
79.0
96
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.6 / 29.6
20.0 / 22.0
Assists
22.8 / 19.7
17.0 / 4.0
Blocks
6.7 / 6.4
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
56.4 / 52.2
48.0 / 34.0
Free Throw %
70.1 / 73.8
72.0 / 64.0
Rebounding
45.1 / 40.4
40.0 / 35.0
Steals
7.6 / 8.8
12.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
12.2 / 11.5
11.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USC
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -3.5
MICH
Advantage
37-3-0
(92.5%)
Margin: 17.8
ATS +/-: +3.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USC
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -3.5
MICH
Advantage
19-21-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 17.8
ATS +/-: +3.6
⚖️ Over/Under
USC
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +2.5
MICH
17-23-0
O: 42.5% / U: 57.5%
Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MICH
USC
MICH
USC
ML
78%
31-9
52%
16-15
63%
24-14
58%
18-13
ATS
78%
31-9
68%
21-10
63%
24-14
58%
18-13
TTL
57%
23-17
68%
21-10
100%
38-0
100%
31-0
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