Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Pioneers @ Purple Eagles SHU @ NIA

SACRED HEART

PIONEERSSHU

5-9  |  Road

61
FINAL
Fri, Jan 2 • 4:00 PM ET
Gallagher Center
View Odds Details →

NIAGARA

PURPLE EAGLESNIA

3-9  |  Home

64
AI Model Win Probability
PIONEERS
100%
📊
PURPLE EAGLES
0%
PIONEERS --
PURPLE EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
174.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
NIAGARA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Niagara)
PioneersSHU (-3.5) 0 Purple EaglesNIA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pioneers Cover

27.4%

Purple Eagles Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NIA -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NIA)

SHU By 1-7 points

16.9%

SHU By 8-14 points

6.8%

NIA By 1-7 points

26.8%

NIA By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
84
SACRED HEART
90
NIAGARA
Simulated Score
69
SACRED HEART
73
NIAGARA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Purple Eagles Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Purple Eagles Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Purple Eagles (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Purple Eagles (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o140.5 Loss
Proj Total: 174.0
D
Sim u140.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 24, 2026 NIA @ SHU 70 - 71
Jan 2, 2026 SHU @ NIA 61 - 64
Jan 25, 2025 SHU @ NIA 86 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +18.3% more
Niagara: 6.8 vs Sacred Heart: 5.7
Rebounding (L5) +28.6% more
Sacred Heart: 37.5 vs Niagara: 26.7
Assists (L5) +17.0% more
Sacred Heart: 16.4 vs Niagara: 13.6
Turnovers (L5) +15.6% more
Sacred Heart: 13.4 vs Niagara: 11.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SHU Score 84.0 61
NIA Score 90.0 64
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 26.3 / 32.8 42.0 / 26.0
Assists 13.6 / 16.4 11.0 / 5.0
Blocks 2.1 / 2.3 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 39.2 / 41.7 49.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 77.2 / 79.3 67.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 26.7 / 37.5 24.0 / 37.0
Steals 6.8 / 5.7 6.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 11.3 / 13.4 9.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
77%MONEY23%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
70%MONEY30%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
36%MONEY64%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SHU Advantage
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: -1.3
NIA
8-22-0 (26.7%)
Margin: -7.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SHU Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: -1.3
NIA
13-16-0 (44.8%)
Margin: -7.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
SHU
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: +1.5
NIA
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: -0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NIA
SHU
NIA
SHU
ML
55% 16-13
61% 20-13
72% 21-8
73% 24-9
ATS
69% 20-9
76% 25-8
72% 21-8
73% 24-9
TTL
55% 16-13
58% 19-14
100% 29-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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