MOUNT ST. MARY'S
MOUNTAINEERSMSM
5-9 | Road
65
MERRIMACK
WARRIORSMRMK
7-7 | Home
75
AI Model Win Probability
MOUNTAINEERS
0%
WARRIORS
100%
MOUNTAINEERS
--
WARRIORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
134.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Mount St. Mary's)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MSM -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSM)
MSM By 1-7 points
20.1%
MSM By 8-14 points
27.2%
MRMK By 1-7 points
8.0%
MRMK By 8-14 points
2.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Mount St. Mary's
73
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
Merrimack
61
MERRIMACK
Simulated Score
Mount St. Mary's
68
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
Merrimack
72
MERRIMACK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mountaineers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Warriors
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mountaineers (-4.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim
Warriors (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u141.5
Win
Proj Total: 134.0
D
Sim
u141.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 5, 2026
MRMK @ MSM
87 - 70
Jan 2, 2026
MSM @ MRMK
65 - 75
Mar 14, 2025
MSM @ MRMK
57 - 55
Jan 31, 2025
MSM @ MRMK
66 - 58
Feb 3, 2022
MRMK @ MSM
53 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+51.0% more
Mount St. Mary's: 17.1
vs
Merrimack: 8.4
Rebounding (L5)
+28.2% more
Mount St. Mary's: 38.1
vs
Merrimack: 27.4
Steals (L5)
+24.4% more
Mount St. Mary's: 11.2
vs
Merrimack: 8.5
Assists (L5)
+17.7% more
Mount St. Mary's: 16.4
vs
Merrimack: 13.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MSM Score
73.0
65
MRMK Score
61.0
75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.5 / 28.6
27.0 / 11.0
Assists
13.5 / 16.4
10.0 / 9.0
Blocks
5.3 / 3.7
9.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
43.1 / 46.3
41.0 / 39.0
Free Throw %
77.0 / 60.3
77.0 / 68.0
Rebounding
27.4 / 38.1
27.0 / 41.0
Steals
8.5 / 11.2
8.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
8.4 / 17.1
10.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSM
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -2.1
ATS +/-: 0.0
MRMK
Advantage
23-11-0
(67.7%)
Margin: 2.1
ATS +/-: +2.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSM
17-13-1
(56.7%)
Margin: -2.1
ATS +/-: 0.0
MRMK
Advantage
19-14-1
(57.6%)
Margin: 2.1
ATS +/-: +2.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MSM
10-21-0
O: 32.3% / U: 67.7%
Total +/-: -3.9
MRMK
12-22-0
O: 35.3% / U: 64.7%
Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MRMK
MSM
MRMK
MSM
ML
47%
16-18
53%
17-15
65%
22-12
61%
19-12
ATS
53%
18-16
62%
20-12
65%
22-12
61%
19-12
TTL
62%
21-13
81%
26-6
100%
34-0
100%
31-0
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