Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Aggies @ Panthers NMSU @ FIU

NEW MEXICO STATE

AGGIESNMSU

8-3  |  Road

74
FINAL
Fri, Jan 2 • 12:00 PM ET
Ocean Bank Convocation Center
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

PANTHERSFIU

7-5  |  Home

89
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
100%
📊
PANTHERS
0%
AGGIES --
PANTHERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
165.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Florida International)
AggiesNMSU (-3.5) 0 PanthersFIU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Aggies Cover

9.7%

Panthers Cover

90.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around FIU -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FIU)

NMSU By 1-7 points

6.8%

NMSU By 8-14 points

1.7%

FIU By 1-7 points

18.6%

FIU By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
76
NEW MEXICO STATE
89
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Simulated Score
68
NEW MEXICO STATE
72
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Panthers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Panthers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Panthers (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Panthers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o155.5 Win
Proj Total: 165.0
D
Sim u155.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 24, 2026 FIU @ NMSU 81 - 78
Jan 2, 2026 NMSU @ FIU 74 - 89
Feb 15, 2025 FIU @ NMSU 48 - 76
Jan 16, 2025 NMSU @ FIU 59 - 52
Mar 9, 2024 FIU @ NMSU 70 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +50.6% more
Florida International: 9.8 vs New Mexico State: 6.5
Assists (L5) +42.3% more
Florida International: 18.8 vs New Mexico State: 13.2
Turnovers (L5) +39.5% more
Florida International: 14.1 vs New Mexico State: 10.1
Blocks (L5) +25.8% more
Florida International: 4.5 vs New Mexico State: 3.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NMSU Score 76.0 74
FIU Score 89.0 89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.4 / 33.6 44.0 / 36.0
Assists 18.8 / 13.2 19.0 / 15.0
Blocks 4.5 / 3.6 3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 50.0 / 43.7 53.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 70.4 / 72.7 73.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 42.2 / 33.8 38.0 / 26.0
Steals 9.8 / 6.5 9.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 14.1 / 10.1 13.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
50%MONEY50%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NMSU Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
FIU
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NMSU
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
FIU Advantage
16-13-0 (55.2%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
NMSU
17-11-1
O: 60.7% / U: 39.3% Total +/-: +3.2
FIU
15-13-1
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4% Total +/-: +1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FIU
NMSU
FIU
NMSU
ML
58% 18-13
61% 19-12
65% 20-11
67% 20-10
ATS
52% 16-15
65% 20-11
65% 20-11
67% 20-10
TTL
65% 20-11
45% 14-17
100% 31-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Rylan Griffen Secures Spot on Texas A&M's 2026-27 Roster After N…
aggieswire 12 hours, 37 minutes ago
Jalen Shelley Compares Texas A&M Basketball's Press to Minnesota…
aggieswire 4 days, 12 hours ago
Texas A&M's Blowout Loss to LSU: Five Critical Takeaways
headtopics 1 week, 4 days ago
Texas A&M vs. LSU: Aggies' Playoff Hopes Hang in the Balance as …
si 1 week, 5 days ago
Bucky McMillan's Roster Overhaul: Texas A&M Basketball Eyes Tour…
yahoo 1 week, 6 days ago