MICHIGAN STATE
SPARTANSMSU
12-1 | Road
56
NEBRASKA
CORNHUSKERSNEB
13-0 | Home
58
AI Model Win Probability
SPARTANS
0%
CORNHUSKERS
100%
SPARTANS
--
CORNHUSKERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
210.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
NEBRASKA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NEB +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NEB)
MSU By 1-7 points
26.8%
MSU By 8-14 points
18.6%
NEB By 1-7 points
23.0%
NEB By 8-14 points
12.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Michigan State
106
MICHIGAN STATE
Nebraska
104
NEBRASKA
Simulated Score
Michigan State
68
MICHIGAN STATE
Nebraska
72
NEBRASKA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Spartans
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cornhuskers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cornhuskers (+2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim
Cornhuskers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o146.5
Loss
Proj Total: 210.0
D
Sim
u146.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 2, 2026
MSU @ NEB
56 - 58
Dec 7, 2024
NEB @ MSU
52 - 89
Dec 10, 2023
MSU @ NEB
70 - 77
Feb 28, 2023
MSU @ NEB
80 - 67
Jan 3, 2023
NEB @ MSU
56 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+39.9% more
Michigan State: 5.4
vs
Nebraska: 3.2
Turnovers (L5)
+30.9% more
Michigan State: 12.3
vs
Nebraska: 8.5
Assists (L5)
+18.7% more
Michigan State: 22.9
vs
Nebraska: 18.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+10.9%
Michigan State: 40.3%
vs
Nebraska: 29.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MSU Score
106.0
56
NEB Score
104.0
58
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.4 / 40.3
35.0 / 36.0
Assists
18.6 / 22.9
15.0 / 12.0
Blocks
3.2 / 5.4
5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
47.3 / 49.3
32.0 / 34.0
Free Throw %
80.3 / 73.3
69.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
39.5 / 44.2
30.0 / 45.0
Steals
6.5 / 5.0
7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
8.5 / 12.3
8.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSU
27-8-0
(77.1%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +1.5
NEB
Advantage
28-7-0
(80.0%)
Margin: 10.8
ATS +/-: +2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSU
17-16-2
(51.5%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +1.5
NEB
Advantage
19-15-1
(55.9%)
Margin: 10.8
ATS +/-: +2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MSU
16-19-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +1.5
NEB
11-24-0
O: 31.4% / U: 68.6%
Total +/-: -6.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NEB
MSU
NEB
MSU
ML
51%
18-17
71%
25-10
62%
21-13
61%
20-13
ATS
54%
19-16
71%
25-10
62%
21-13
61%
20-13
TTL
63%
22-13
49%
17-18
100%
34-0
100%
33-0
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