Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mountaineers @ Cyclones WVU @ ISU

WEST VIRGINIA

MOUNTAINEERSWVU

9-4  |  Road

59
FINAL
Fri, Jan 2 • 9:00 PM ET
Hilton Coliseum
View Odds Details →

IOWA STATE

CYCLONESISU

13-0  |  Home

80
AI Model Win Probability
MOUNTAINEERS
100%
📊
CYCLONES
0%
MOUNTAINEERS --
CYCLONES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
121.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.0
IOWA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +29.0 points (Iowa State)
MountaineersWVU (-3.5) 0 CyclonesISU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mountaineers Cover

0.2%

Cyclones Cover

99.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ISU -29.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ISU)

WVU By 1-7 points

0.1%

WVU By 8-14 points

0.0%

ISU By 1-7 points

1.4%

ISU By 8-14 points

5.8%

AI Model Projected Score
46
WEST VIRGINIA
75
IOWA STATE
Simulated Score
71
WEST VIRGINIA
76
IOWA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cyclones Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cyclones Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cyclones (-16.5) Win
Proj Spread: -29.0
D
Sim Cyclones (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u142.5 Win
Proj Total: 121.0
D
Sim u142.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 2, 2026 WVU @ ISU 59 - 80
Jan 18, 2025 ISU @ WVU 57 - 64
Feb 24, 2024 WVU @ ISU 64 - 71
Feb 27, 2023 WVU @ ISU 72 - 69
Feb 8, 2023 ISU @ WVU 71 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +39.9% more
Iowa State: 7.8 vs West Virginia: 5.5
Blocks (L5) +24.0% more
Iowa State: 3.9 vs West Virginia: 3.1
Assists (L5) +21.5% more
Iowa State: 19.7 vs West Virginia: 16.2
Field Goal % (L5) +3.2%
Iowa State: 51.3% vs West Virginia: 48.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WVU Score 46.0 59
ISU Score 75.0 80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.8 / 40.7 52.0 / 29.0
Assists 19.7 / 16.2 26.0 / 13.0
Blocks 3.9 / 3.1 5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 51.3 / 48.1 53.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 65.4 / 71.3 60.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 39.7 / 38.3 35.0 / 23.0
Steals 7.8 / 5.5 6.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 10.6 / 10.8 11.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
22%MONEY78%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WVU
21-14-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +0.2
ISU Advantage
29-8-0 (78.4%)
Margin: 16.4 ATS +/-: +2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WVU
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +0.2
ISU Advantage
22-14-1 (61.1%)
Margin: 16.4 ATS +/-: +2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
WVU
13-21-1
O: 38.2% / U: 61.8% Total +/-: -1.6
ISU
16-21-0
O: 43.2% / U: 56.8% Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ISU
WVU
ISU
WVU
ML
57% 21-16
63% 22-13
76% 26-8
76% 26-8
ATS
62% 23-14
60% 21-14
76% 26-8
76% 26-8
TTL
54% 20-17
40% 14-21
100% 34-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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