WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
21-14-5 | Road
3
OTTAWA
SENATORSOTT
18-15-5 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Logan Thompson
#48 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Artem Zub
#2 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson | None-None | 4.16 | 0.875 | -- |
| Artem Zub | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
4.16
GAA
--
0.875
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
100%
SENATORS
0%
CAPITALS
--
SENATORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
OTTAWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Ottawa)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around OTT -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OTT)
WSH By 1 goal
12.1%
WSH By 2-3 goals
9.3%
OTT By 1 goal
19.7%
OTT By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Ottawa
4
OTTAWA
Simulated Score
Washington
2
WASHINGTON
Ottawa
3
OTTAWA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Senators
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Senators
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Senators (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Senators (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 18, 2026
OTT @ WSH
1 - 4
Jan 1, 2026
WSH @ OTT
3 - 4
Oct 25, 2025
OTT @ WSH
7 - 1
Mar 3, 2025
OTT @ WSH
4 - 5
Jan 30, 2025
WSH @ OTT
4 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+24.9% more
Ottawa: 22.7
vs
Washington: 18.2
Blocked Shots (L5)
+46.2% more
Washington: 19.1
vs
Ottawa: 10.3
Power Play % (L5)
+1.9%
Washington: 18.8%
vs
Ottawa: 16.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
3.0
3
OTT Score
4.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
10.3 / 19.1
14.0 / 19.0
Faceoff %
51.6 / 52.4
49.1 / 50.9
Hits
22.7 / 18.2
32.0 / 15.0
Power Play %
16.9 / 18.8
0.0 / 25.0
Shots on Goal
28.8 / 28.5
32.0 / 29.0
Takeaways
4.2 / 4.4
6.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OTT
WSH
OTT
WSH
ML
25%
1-3
100%
3-0
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
ATS
25%
1-3
100%
3-0
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
TTL
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
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