BOSTON
CELTICSBOS
20-12 | Road
120
SACRAMENTO
KINGSSAC
8-25 | Home
106
AI Model Win Probability
CELTICS
100%
KINGS
0%
CELTICS
--
KINGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
215.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
SACRAMENTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Sacramento)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SAC -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)
BOS By 1-7 points
15.3%
BOS By 8-14 points
5.8%
SAC By 1-7 points
26.2%
SAC By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
104
BOSTON
Sacramento
111
SACRAMENTO
Simulated Score
Boston
112
BOSTON
Sacramento
118
SACRAMENTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Kings
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Kings
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Kings (+10)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Kings (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u229.5
Win
Proj Total: 215.0
D
Sim
u229.5
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 30, 2026
SAC @ BOS
93 - 112
Jan 1, 2026
BOS @ SAC
120 - 106
Mar 24, 2025
BOS @ SAC
113 - 95
Jan 10, 2025
SAC @ BOS
114 - 97
Apr 5, 2024
SAC @ BOS
100 - 101
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+28.3% more
Sacramento: 16.4
vs
Boston: 12.8
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.8%
Boston: 49.0%
vs
Sacramento: 44.2%
Free Throw % (L5)
+1.8%
Boston: 81.9%
vs
Sacramento: 80.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
104.0
120
SAC Score
111.0
106
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.5 / 34.4
33.0 / 41.0
Assists
23.5 / 23.4
29.0 / 25.0
Blocks
6.0 / 6.2
2.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
44.2 / 49.0
47.0 / 51.0
Free Throw %
80.1 / 81.9
93.0 / 83.0
Rebounding
42.6 / 43.6
32.0 / 40.0
Steals
8.3 / 8.8
7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
16.4 / 12.8
9.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
59-30-0
(66.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
SAC
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
Advantage
51-38-0
(57.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
SAC
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0%
Total +/-: -3.2
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
BOS
SAC
BOS
ML
55%
55-45
57%
61-46
61%
50-32
53%
47-41
ATS
54%
52-45-3
59%
61-43-3
61%
50-32
53%
47-41
TTL
58%
57-42-1
56%
60-47
100%
82-0
100%
88-0
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