Home / NBA Projections NBA / 76ers @ Mavericks PHI @ DAL

PHILADELPHIA

76ERSPHI

17-14  |  Road

123
FINAL
Thu, Jan 1 • 8:30 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

12-22  |  Home

108
AI Model Win Probability
76ERS
0%
📊
MAVERICKS
100%
76ERS --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
226.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Philadelphia)
76ersPHI (-3.5) 0 MavericksDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

76ers Cover

91.9%

Mavericks Cover

8.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PHI -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

PHI By 1-7 points

16.9%

PHI By 8-14 points

26.2%

DAL By 1-7 points

5.8%

DAL By 8-14 points

1.4%

AI Model Projected Score
120
PHILADELPHIA
106
DALLAS
Simulated Score
112
PHILADELPHIA
115
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI 76ers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mavericks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI 76ers (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Mavericks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u230.5 Loss
Proj Total: 226.0
D
Sim u230.5 Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 1, 2026 PHI @ DAL 123 - 108
Dec 20, 2025 DAL @ PHI 114 - 121
Mar 16, 2025 PHI @ DAL 130 - 125
Feb 4, 2025 DAL @ PHI 116 - 118
Mar 3, 2024 PHI @ DAL 120 - 116
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +35.1% more
Philadelphia: 9.8 vs Dallas: 6.4
Free Throw % (L5) +7.4%
Philadelphia: 82.8% vs Dallas: 75.5%
Blocks (L5) +32.1% more
Dallas: 6.5 vs Philadelphia: 4.9
Turnovers (L5) +9.3% more
Dallas: 14.6 vs Philadelphia: 13.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 120.0 123
DAL Score 106.0 108
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.8 / 34.6 21.0 / 36.0
Assists 27.3 / 25.2 23.0 / 22.0
Blocks 6.5 / 4.9 1.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 50.5 / 42.8 45.0 / 53.0
Free Throw % 75.5 / 82.8 90.0 / 88.0
Rebounding 44.4 / 42.3 39.0 / 43.0
Steals 6.4 / 9.8 8.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 14.6 / 13.4 13.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
67%MONEY33%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI Advantage
50-44-0 (53.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI Advantage
50-44-0 (53.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
44-50-0
O: 46.8% / U: 53.2% Total +/-: +1.4
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
PHI
DAL
PHI
ML
62% 63-39
63% 69-40
54% 44-37
48% 45-48
ATS
67% 68-34
65% 71-38
54% 44-37
48% 45-48
TTL
59% 60-41-1
55% 60-49
100% 81-0
100% 93-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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