MIAMI
HEATMIA
18-15 | Road
118
DETROIT
PISTONSDET
25-8 | Home
112
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
100%
PISTONS
0%
HEAT
--
PISTONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
229.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DET -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
MIA By 1-7 points
15.3%
MIA By 8-14 points
5.8%
DET By 1-7 points
26.2%
DET By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
111
MIAMI
Detroit
118
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Miami
104
MIAMI
Detroit
118
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pistons
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pistons
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pistons (-5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Pistons (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u236.5
Win
Proj Total: 229.0
D
Sim
u236.5
Win
Proj Total: 222.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 8, 2026
DET @ MIA
110 - 121
Jan 1, 2026
MIA @ DET
118 - 112
Nov 29, 2025
DET @ MIA
138 - 135
Mar 19, 2025
DET @ MIA
116 - 113
Dec 16, 2024
MIA @ DET
124 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+75.8% more
Detroit: 6.2
vs
Miami: 3.6
Turnovers (L5)
+37.2% more
Detroit: 16.3
vs
Miami: 11.9
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.0%
Detroit: 52.0%
vs
Miami: 49.0%
Free Throw % (L5)
+12.3%
Miami: 85.9%
vs
Detroit: 73.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
111.0
118
DET Score
118.0
112
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.4 / 39.6
35.0 / 36.0
Assists
28.5 / 31.7
25.0 / 25.0
Blocks
6.2 / 3.6
9.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
52.0 / 49.0
48.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
73.6 / 85.9
87.0 / 90.0
Rebounding
42.7 / 46.9
40.0 / 49.0
Steals
10.8 / 11.1
11.0 / 14.0
Turnovers
16.3 / 11.9
21.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
DET
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
MIA
DET
MIA
ML
55%
64-53
48%
46-50
49%
47-49
59%
48-34
ATS
53%
60-54-3
51%
49-47
49%
47-49
59%
48-34
TTL
60%
70-46-1
59%
57-39
100%
96-0
100%
82-0
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