Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Racers @ Flames MUR @ UIC

MURRAY STATE

RACERSMUR

11-3  |  Road

81
FINAL
Thu, Jan 1 • 9:00 PM ET
Credit Union 1 Arena
View Odds Details →

UIC

FLAMESUIC

5-8  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
RACERS
0%
📊
FLAMES
100%
RACERS --
FLAMES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-59.0
MURRAY STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +59.0 points (Murray State)
RacersMUR (-3.5) 0 FlamesUIC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Racers Cover

100.0%

Flames Cover

0.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MUR -59.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MUR)

MUR By 1-7 points

0.0%

MUR By 8-14 points

0.0%

UIC By 1-7 points

0.0%

UIC By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
106
MURRAY STATE
47
UIC
Simulated Score
68
MURRAY STATE
72
UIC
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Racers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Flames Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Racers (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -59.0
D
Sim Flames (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u159.5 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim u159.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 6, 2026 UIC @ MUR 92 - 79
Feb 3, 2026 UIC @ MUR 74 - 81
Jan 1, 2026 MUR @ UIC 81 - 77
Feb 11, 2025 UIC @ MUR 53 - 63
Jan 15, 2025 MUR @ UIC 93 - 97
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.6%
Murray State: 37.5% vs UIC: 30.8%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.8%
Murray State: 49.0% vs UIC: 45.2%
Steals (L5) +45.9% more
UIC: 8.5 vs Murray State: 5.8
Blocks (L5) +10.7% more
UIC: 4.4 vs Murray State: 3.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MUR Score 106.0 81
UIC Score 47.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.8 / 37.5 33.0 / 33.0
Assists 15.4 / 14.9 14.0 / 17.0
Blocks 4.4 / 3.9 4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 45.2 / 49.0 41.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 76.5 / 77.9 81.0 / 86.0
Rebounding 37.4 / 35.8 42.0 / 41.0
Steals 8.5 / 5.8 8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 11.2 / 12.1 15.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MUR Advantage
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
UIC
--
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MUR Advantage
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
UIC
--
⚖️ Over/Under
MUR
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4% Total +/-: +4.8
UIC
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UIC
MUR
UIC
MUR
ML
57% 20-15
58% 19-14
44% 15-19
61% 20-13
ATS
54% 19-16
52% 17-16
44% 15-19
61% 20-13
TTL
60% 21-14
70% 23-10
100% 34-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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