Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Ospreys @ Governors UNF @ APSU

NORTH FLORIDA

OSPREYSUNF

2-11  |  Road

83
FINAL
Thu, Jan 1 • 8:00 PM ET
F&M Bank Arena
View Odds Details →

AUSTIN PEAY

GOVERNORSAPSU

6-5  |  Home

102
AI Model Win Probability
OSPREYS
100%
📊
GOVERNORS
0%
OSPREYS --
GOVERNORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
186.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
AUSTIN PEAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Austin Peay)
OspreysUNF (-3.5) 0 GovernorsAPSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ospreys Cover

8.1%

Governors Cover

91.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around APSU -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (APSU)

UNF By 1-7 points

5.8%

UNF By 8-14 points

1.4%

APSU By 1-7 points

16.9%

APSU By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
86
NORTH FLORIDA
100
AUSTIN PEAY
Simulated Score
73
NORTH FLORIDA
78
AUSTIN PEAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Governors Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Governors Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Governors (+14.5) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Governors (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o161.5 Win
Proj Total: 186.0
D
Sim u161.5 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 19, 2026 APSU @ UNF 77 - 76
Jan 1, 2026 UNF @ APSU 83 - 102
Mar 2, 2025 UNF @ APSU 69 - 90
Jan 2, 2025 APSU @ UNF 97 - 89
Mar 5, 2024 UNF @ APSU 98 - 101
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +288.0% more
Austin Peay: 3.8 vs North Florida: 1.0
Steals (L5) +143.7% more
Austin Peay: 12.5 vs North Florida: 5.1
Assists (L5) +49.9% more
Austin Peay: 19.0 vs North Florida: 12.7
Rebounding (L5) +39.0% more
Austin Peay: 39.0 vs North Florida: 28.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNF Score 86.0 83
APSU Score 100.0 102
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.3 / 35.0 32.0 / 37.0
Assists 19.0 / 12.7 20.0 / 13.0
Blocks 3.8 / 1.0 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 43.5 / 42.2 49.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 77.1 / 83.9 78.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 39.0 / 28.1 44.0 / 31.0
Steals 12.5 / 5.1 12.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 11.8 / 12.8 6.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
37%MONEY63%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNF
7-25-0 (21.9%)
Margin: -8.6 ATS +/-: +1.1
APSU Advantage
22-9-0 (71.0%)
Margin: 8.4 ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNF Advantage
17-12-0 (58.6%)
Margin: -8.6 ATS +/-: +1.1
APSU
14-14-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 8.4 ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UNF
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +3.5
APSU
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +2.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
APSU
UNF
APSU
UNF
ML
53% 16-14
69% 22-10
59% 16-11
66% 21-11
ATS
57% 17-13
69% 22-10
59% 16-11
66% 21-11
TTL
57% 17-13
66% 21-11
100% 27-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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